Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase throughout the day as a storm impacts the area. Triggering large avalanches is likely by the end of the day. Avoid slopes where the wind is rapidly depositing snow into cohesive slabs, and be prepared to dial back terrain choices if you're finding more than 6" of new snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Expect to encounter freshly formed, sensitive wind slabs in terrain exposed to the wind. Some of these slabs are building atop crusts and facets. In these areas, slabs may be particularly sensitive and break wider than expected. Look for smooth pillows, dunes, waves, and textured surfaces of windblown snow near ridgelines, mid-slope gullies, and in cirques below large cliff bands. You may find wind slabs on open slopes at middle elevations as well, given the strength of the winds associated with the current storm. Cracks shooting from your skis or sled are a clear sign that you've found an unstable slab. These smaller avalanches can serve as an effective trigger for the much larger and more dangerous persistent slab problem described below. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Loose snow avalanches are possible during periods of intense snowfall. These could run faster and further than expected given the smooth, crusty surfaces present on many slopes before this storm.

    (3/7/2026)

    Remnants of an old slab avalanche out 4th of July Creek that's been mostly refilled due to recent wind loading.

    Photo: Tyler, Jorgenson

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Although unlikely, you could trigger a 2-3 ft thick persistent slab avalanche on buried weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, and crust + facet combinations). This problem is worst on middle and upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. 

    Unfortunately, unstable slopes probably won't provide obvious signs of instability, like snowpack cracking or collapsing. Snowpack stability tests are likely to be inconclusive and are of limited use. Tracks on a slope don't mean it's safe. Avalanches can be triggered by the second, third, or fourth rider on a slope. In low probability/high consequence situations like this, there's a good chance the first sign of instability you'll see is the avalanche you trigger.

    The likelihood of triggering a slide is decreasing, but the thick, dense slab makes the consequences severe. Persistent weak layers can fail unpredictably and break wider and higher on slopes than you might expect. Avoiding avalanche terrain is the only surefire way to manage this problem. Short of that, you can reduce your risk by avoiding large avalanche paths and those with ugly consequences if you are caught in a slide.

Avalanche Discussion

This storm looks potent. Normally we think of large storm totals in terms of snow depth and SWE indicating a big storm, but not in this case. Instead, the potency is due to the strong to extreme W winds that are blowing throughout this storm cycle. Winds gusting up to 75 mph across most of our forecast area rarely occur, and sustaining those winds for 24+ hours is even more unusual. Additionally, spring storms are notoriously spotty in their distribution of snowfall, with intense squalls frequently dropping a few inches rapidly in specific locations. Expect to see unusual snow patterns and, potentially, unusual avalanche patterns due to these storm-specific factors. 

So how do we deal with this uncertainty in conditions? Build in larger margins for error. Last night, two of the forecasters, Ethan and Nick, gave a meaningful Digging Deeper presentation about an avalanche they were caught in earlier this year. One of their big take-homes was to build in larger margins when conditions are rapidly changing, especially if you're out on a snowing and blowing storm day. Use the forecast to lay a groundwork for safe travel if you are planning to venture into the mountains today, then be ready to read what's actually happening on the ground to dial back accordingly. Expect changing and deteriorating conditions throughout the day.

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