Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A major springtime storm is approaching, and avalanche danger is going to rise rapidly over the next 24 hours. The chances of natural and human-triggered avalanches around 1 to 2' deep will increase as strong easterly winds pick up this afternoon, and this may impact deeper weak layers in the snowpack. Approach steep terrain with caution today, and consider avoiding travel on or below steep slopes as the storm unfolds.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations:  Last minute change of plans. Our scheduled season is coming to a close with an intense storm, and avalanche danger is going to spike in the next 24 hours. We will issue an additional forecast tomorrow, Friday, May 1.

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Byron Glacier Trail and the Trail of Blue Ice in Portage Valley and the Crow Pass Trail in Girdwood Valley. Remember that as long as there are snowy mountains above you, avalanches can come down to snow-free hiking trails.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent Avalanches: Several recent avalanches were observed on Saturday in the Snug Harbor area within the new storm and windblown snow. Several large wet loose avalanches were also observed on southerly facing slopes. On April 11 and 12, several slab avalanches were observed on a hot southerly slope on Lowell Peak, where a larger avalanche ran to the ground.

    A major storm is arriving at our doorstep, beginning with strong easterly winds ramping up this afternoon. We expect to see winds averaging 30 to 40 mph later today, which will blow snow into reactive wind slabs at mid and upper elevations. These will be around 1 to 2' deep on average, but could get much larger than that by tonight. The most likely places to find unstable snow will be near ridgelines, convex rolls, and in steep, loaded gullies.

    Avalanche danger will be on the rise today through tomorrow, and the size and likelihood of avalanches will increase quickly as the weather picks up. Keep an eye on changing conditions, and be prepared to dial back terrain as the storm unfolds.

    Wet Snow Avalanches: After a warm and sunny day followed by a cloudy night, it is unlikely the snowpack has gotten a solid refreeze. With mostly cloudy skies expected today, natural avalanches may not be very likely, but there is still a chance that a person may trigger wet snow avalanches, especially at and below treeline. Be cautious if you are wallowing around in sloppy, unsupportable snow, and look for better stability on shaded aspects.

     

    (4/29/2026)

    Debris from multiple loose avalanches on the east side of Resurrection Bay, in west and north-facing terrain.

    Photo: Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The approaching storm will continue to add stress to multiple buried weak layers. The most reactive layers are anywhere from 2 to 4' deep on average, and have formed since early March. We received reports of multiple avalanches triggered remotely on the back side of Seattle Ridge yesterday, a clear sign that the snowpack is already reactive. The snowpack in that zone is very similar to the snowpack in the Snug Harbor/Lost Lake area, where we can expect similar activity may occur. As we begin to see active loading, we can expect the snowpack to become more sensitive and the odds of natural and human-triggered avalanches to increase.

    This type of avalanche problem can be difficult to assess. It may not always give you warning signs, even when conditions are primed to avalanche. Travel cautiously today, and consider avoiding travel on or below steep slopes. This problem will only get worse as the incoming storm picks up.

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