Avalanche forecast

Douglas Island

Coastal Alaska Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Hazard remains at moderate for all elevations today, with little change to the weather or snowpack over the last few days. Pockets of wind slab will become more stubborn to trigger but are still capable of producing avalanches. A persistent slab problem also remains, which is difficult to predict in terms of when, where, or if it may be triggered. For these reasons, heightened awareness, careful route finding, and smart line choices are essential. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Lingering wind slabs are possible throughout the day today on Southerly aspects. As winds diminish, these slabs are expected to become less reactive.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With sunny conditions and warming temperatures, wet loose avalanches are becoming more likely. Watch for increasing sun effects on solar aspects, including sun crusts, tree plops, and rollerballs. Wet loose avalanches may have the potential to step down to the 3/6 melt-freeze crust.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    After the active D2 avalanche cycle on 3/22 and 3/23, there has been no known reactivity on the 3/6 melt freeze crust ~85cm down. 

Avalanche Discussion

We are continuing to monitor the 3/6 melt freeze crust and the persistent slab problem. While we have not confirmed any new activity since 3/23, more Large avalanches have been observed on N-W aspects around Douglas with unknown timing. As we enter into a warmer period and mountains start to shed, we anticipate seeing more activity on this layer.

Persistent slabs are notoriously difficult to predict. They can remain dormant for extended periods and may be triggered from isolated thin spots, sometimes with little or no warning. This makes stability feedback unreliable and can create a false sense of security. Careful terrain assessment and heightened awareness are essential.

Solar radiation and wet loose activity has the potential to step down to the 3/6 melt freeze crust. A notable sun crust has formed on Southerly aspects.

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