Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Warm and wet weather will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions on Monday. Wet slides could occur naturally during or shortly after periods of rain, growing large as they descend. Choose travel routes that limit your exposure to large open slopes and terrain traps.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Monday was the initial onset of rain on snow. But the rain isn't stopping, and neither is the potential for wet avalanches. Expect more wet loose slides on steep slopes as snow sheds from rocks or chunks of cornices fail.

    Although they'll likely start at a point, they could grow large as they descend and gouge into last week's storm snow. The debris in these slides will be dense and difficult to escape, even if the slide is small. They could even trigger slabs or travel long distances toward valley bottoms.

    You won't be able to predict when these powerful slides will occur. Your best bet will be to limit the amount of time you spend below large open slopes, sagging cornices, or rocky ledges with snow clinging to them. This includes being aware of terrain far above you and limiting your exposure to terrain traps.

    (3/16/2026)

    A small, but powerful, wet loose slide that started at a point near a tree. The snow was saturated and gouged down into older snow layers, exposing rock as it descended. It crossed a common travel route for both skiers and snowshoers.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Monday's rain resulted in a widespread wet avalanche cycle in the West South zone. Avalanche activity was reported near Paradise, Crystal, and White Pass by avalanche professionals and NWAC forecasters. This isn't your standard wet loose cycle that is easily managed, and we often forecast as moderate danger. With over 5 feet of generally cold, dry snow to work with, wet avalanches could grow large to very large and be destructive.

Unfortunately, Monday was just the beginning of what is expected to be a multi-day wet cycle in the West South zone. We'll be in a perpetual pattern of warm temperatures and rain this week. Some days will be light, some heavy. The major question is when (or possibly if) the scales will tip, leading to very large and destructive avalanches, such as wet slabs or channelized flows on the volcanoes. 

We often see those bigger wet slides after several days of warm weather or when there is a large input of water on a dry snowpack all at once. The smaller water numbers day after day won't be the big all-in-one punch we sometimes get, but there could be a cumulative effect as the warm, rainy days stack up. Tuesday isn't expected to be the day it all falls apart, but we also wouldn't be surprised to hear of a very large avalanche occurring. As the week progresses, we expect the number of slides to decrease, but their size will likely increase.

This could be one of those times where hanging out in the meadows or lower in avalanche paths may not be wise, even though the hazard isn't high. 

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