Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanches large enough to bury a person remain a worrisome possibility. This problem is at its worst at upper elevations and on shaded middle elevation slopes (W-NW-N-NE-E) where weak snow near the ground exists. You may not see warning signs like cracking and collapsing before triggering an avalanche. Slides can be triggered from a distance away from the slope that avalanches and may break wider than you'd expect.

Read today's Forecast Discussion for more info about what MODERATE danger with persistent slab instabilities looks like.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

     A strong over weak structure — the recipe for avalanches — exists in many places. Beneath a 1.5-2.5 foot thick slab, we have sugary, weak, unconsolidated facets. On sunny slopes, you'll find a mix of crusts and facets. This pairing is capable of producing large avalanches that can bury a person. You'll find this snowpack structure on all upper elevation slopes and shaded middle elevation slopes (W-NW-N-NE-N). 

    While cracking and collapses are obvious signs of instability to watch out for while moving through the mountains, don't justify entering a slope due to their absence. Warning signs are helpful, but persistent slabs often don't produce any before it is much too late. You can dramatically reduce your risk of tangling with a large avalanche by avoiding slopes where this weak snow exists at the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

SPICY MODERATE

You might have noticed that the danger dropped from CONSIDERABLE to MODERATE yesterday. This drop is due to the likelihood of triggering an avalanchegradually decreasing as days pass without loading. The size of the potentially deadly slides and the amount of terrain that they live in has not changed. While I'd love a reason to justify traveling into bigger terrain, this is not it. 

Riding in avalanche terrain with a persistent slab problem is unsettlingly similar to playing a game of Russian roulette. There can be ten tracks on a slope, and the slope can still avalanche on the eleventh skier/rider. Just because several members of your party safely made it down the slope does not guarantee the same safe passage for you.

A problem like this tests our patience and understanding of ourselves. Looking down an untouched couloir filled with soft snow from a ridgeline this week, I felt myself drawn to the slope. My mind searched for reasons why skiing something I wouldn't have a few days ago was justifiable...I couldn't find any. We've been in the stagnant slump of managing this same hazard for most of our season, and it isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Framing our mindsets and having discussions about what terrain we are going to avoid before even getting our boots on can give us guardrails in these tempting situations. 

Many of us are conditioned to associate MODERATE on the danger scale with a less-than-impressive avalanche problem. Like medium salsas, not all moderate danger ratings are created equal. We've all taken a big scoop of  "medium" salsa that turned out to have a bit more spice than we bargained for. I'm here to tell you that today's moderate rating is not some bland pico de gallo. While the bottle may read "Moderate", this is not your average yellow day — it's a spicy moderate. Make sure to not bite off more than you can chew. 

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