Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing W-N-E near and above treeline, and on northerly aspects below. In these areas deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible. The danger is greatest on steep slopes near treeline that face N-NE. While the likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche is decreasing, the consequences remain severe. As the day heats up the danger will rise to MODERATE for loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present. The danger for wet avalanches will increase in the coming days, with near record-high temperatures expected this week.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Poor snowpack structure remains on slopes that face W-N-E. Abundant snowfall in March has built a well connected dense slab 2-3 feet thick above weak layers of faceted snow. These layers have been very slow to heal this season due to relatively shallow snow depths. With each passing day, it is becoming harder to trigger an avalanche on these weak layers. You will not see signs of instability today, and the snowpack will feel strong beneath your skis. Even though the chances of triggering an avalanche are becoming less, we have a structure that most snow professionals won't trust their lives with. The most suspect areas are very steep northerly aspects, and likely trigger points are steep convexities, thin slab margins, and shallow rocky areas. If you are biting off pieces of avalanche terrain, choose smooth planar slopes with clean run-out zones.

    I dug this pit on Sunday on a north-facing slope. The overlying slab is dense, with mostly 4F to 1F snow. A dense slab like this will most likely bridge the weight of a skier, but if you find a shallower snowpack zone, the weight of a human can trigger an avalanche on the weak fist-density facets. A triggered slide would likely take out the entire season's snowpack down to the depth hoar.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The mountains got a refreeze last night which will allow for safe travel on sunny slopes this morning. Get after it early today, and you will want to make your exit before things get too warm. As the day heats up, expect a rising danger for loose wet avalanches. The danger follows the sun, with east-facing slopes heating up first, then south, and then west. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present. Even a small wet-loose avalanche can have high consequences in complex terrain. Be aware of what is below you, and think about what might happen if you get knocked off your feet by a wet avalanche.

Special Announcement

Our Spring Campaign is in full swing, and there are two great ways to support forecasting, awareness, and education across Utah: Donate to our Spring Campaign, or Bid on items in our Spring Auction. Every dollar donated helps keep the backcountry community on top.

Construction will resume on the Loop Road today. It will be closed near Pack Creek from 8:30-5:30.

Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and is melting out down to the dirt.

Grooming Conditions: Trails were last groomed on Thursday.

Recent Activity

Riders over on the Manti Skyline are having close calls with deep avalanches and full burials. They have a similar snowpack and it's a strong reminder of what can happen.

See the complete avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 121" Depth at Gold Basin: 47"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 29° F

Weather

Under clear skies it is 29° F in Gold Basin this morning. Overnight winds were light out of the NW. Today will be sunny with a high temperature of 52° F at 10,000' and light westerly winds. High pressure dominates into Thursday with temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal. A Pacific storm on Friday will push inland on a SW flow, resulting in windy conditions for southeast Utah. Temperatures will drop 10° F on Friday. Light snow showers will develop Friday night and Saturday. It doesn't look like much snow, but temperatures should return to normal by Saturday.

General Conditions

Spring conditions are in full effect with a mixed bag of sun and wind-affected surfaces, and areas of soft, settled powder on sheltered northerly aspects. Temperatures dipped below freezing for about 8 hours overnight, and this should help develop corn-like conditions on solar aspects. Spring-like conditions on the sunny slopes will be your best bet for fun turning and riding today. The strategy is to get up early and make your exit when things start to get wet and sloppy. Riding the sunny slopes is also a great way to avoid the lingering persistent weak layer problem. Poor snowpack structure remains on slopes that face W-N-E. While this problem is becoming harder to trigger it is still possible for skiers and riders to trigger deep and dangerous avalanches on these slopes. Steep northerly, convex, shallow rocky zones remain the most suspect areas.

High peaks and north faces of the middle group. From left to right: Mounts Peale, Mellenthin, Tukuhinikivatz, Tukno.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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