Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches will be possible today up to 1 foot in depth.  Wet loose avalanches will become possible during the heat of the day on sunny slopes.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs that formed on 3/7 have gained some strength after 2 nights of clear and cold temps.  Reactivity of wind slabs is expected to have decreased from yesterday to stubborn -unreactive.  It will still be possible to find areas of unstable wind slab near ridge lines, unsupported terrain and crossloaded gullies. Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing that would indicate areas of wind slab still have enough energy to produce an avalanche.

    Winds have switched to East and are expected to be moderate today at upper elevations.  This could form shallow fresh wind slabs , but is not expected to be a deep or widespread problem.  Keep an eye out for fresh wind slab development. Light snowfall is forcasted that is not expected to effect stability.

    Better stability and riding quality can be found in areas protected from the most recent wind.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches will be possible today on solar aspects receiving direct solar input.  Pay attention to aspect and keep in mind that wet loose activity will often peak when the sun is perpindicular to a slope.  Low elevations will be the most affected by this problem, but this is the time of year when high elevations will become reactive on south facing steep rocky terrain that funnels into a lot of our upper elevation North facing ramp terrain.  Solar aspects will now have a crust at low elevation.  Once this crust is broken down by the sun wet loose activity will become possible.  This will happen first near rocks as the suns energy is more efficiently absorbed by the dark color and will then be transferred into the surrounding snow.

    Overcast skies are forecasted today, and will limit wet loose activity if that forecast plays out.  The size of wet loose avalanches is directly correlated with the size of the slope, its shape (does it funnel or fan out?), and how warm the snow is.  Think about the combination of all of these factors when moving through terrain exposed to steep solar aspects.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

     

    There are currently 2 persistent weak layers on our radar, both are believed to be limited to terrain below 3000' and are not widespread issues even in the elevation band where they exist   There is a layer of buried surface hoar from Valentine's Day as well as weak snow below a decomposing rain crust from late January.  Additional snow and wind loading are slowly adding stress to these layers where they exist.

     Buried surface hoar from 2/14 exists in previously wind-protected areas from 1500 -2500 feet.  This layer is difficult to identify as it has only been found in a narrow elevation band and exists in terrain that was protected from the strong outflow (North) wind event that occurred in late January.  This layer has been found on average between 12-20 inches in depth.  This layer has been observed to be well defined in isolated areas.   Propagation in ECT tests has been observed in one location as recently as 3/6.  

    Below 1500 feet, a rain crust is buried 16-20 inches and has shown propagation beneath the crust in snow pits as recently as 3/5.  Due to the low elevation, this is only a concern in a limited amount of terrain.  This layer could be a concern in steep low elevation canyons, or on steep unsupported slopes below 1500'.  Use caution when traveling through low elevations with poor snowpack structure. 

     To limit exposure to both of these layers avoid terrain traps and consider using conservative terrain while moving through low elevations..  There is uncertainty about the current and future reactivity of these two layers.  There have not yet been any observed or reported avalanches on either of these layers.  We are keeping these on our list, as current weather conditions will continue to stress these layers. 

     

    (3/6/2025)

    Prominent layer of buried surface hoar at low-mid elevations just north of forecast Continental forecast area.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

None observed or reported

Forecast Discussion:

Over the last few weeks, we have received numerous small waves of snowfall and above average temperatures.  The most recent round of snowfall on 3/5-6 left us with 6-12+ inches of snow that accumulated on a strong snowpack above 3000' with good structure and no major flaws.  Instabilities that have been observed lately have been related to new snow that is in the process of bonding with the snowpack within a 48 hour window of accumulation.  On 3/7 we received our first somewhat significant outflow wind event in almost 5 weeks.  This event was short but strong enough to have formed wind slabs in specific areas.  Instabilities were reported to be minimal on 3/8 in relation to wind slab and will decrease further today.  The sun is beginning to have more of an effect on our snowpack and can increase the hazard on slopes receiving direct sunlight by either melting the surface and creating wet loose conditions or by warming that can increase cohesion and change the slab character.

Keep in mind that conditions may vary from place to place and instabilities can exist in some places.  Human triggered avalanches are possible.  Assessment of the snowpack on a slope by slope basis should be your priority when skiing in consequential terrain.  

Below 2000' the structure of the snowpack is not nearly as strong as mid-upper elevations, especially below 1500'.  Multiple rain crusts are in varying states of decay and weak snow has been observed below the uppermost crust.  This weakness in the snowpack is only expected to be a concern in steep low-elevation terrain but may be a concern for Ice Climbers trying to navigate steep unsupported slopes. We have not seen any significant avalanche activity on these layers but pit tests show moderate reactivity in specific areas. 

Buried surface hoar has been identified in a few places between 1500-2500'. Propagation in snow pits has only been identified in one location so far and the narrow elevation band is not conducive for significant human-triggered avalanche propagations.  However, small avalanches could be possible on isolated terrain features in terrain that is protected from outflow wind events below 2500'.  Incremental snowfall will continue to stress these layers where they exist. Assesment of this layer is recommended in areas that are commonly protected from outflow events.  This layer may exist above 2500' in very isolated locations, but this has not yet been observed.

 

Additional Information:

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/9 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    44     3 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O     6    ~500 Nicks    0    0    143    5 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    4 N/O

Regions covered