Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche problems are generally small, involving just the recent snow, and are most hazardous in high-consequence terrain. Today's increasing winds fuel the continued threat of small wind slabs, similar to these natural and triggered slab avalanches observed yesterday.  Warming snow surfaces will cause shallow wet loose instabilities in wind-protected, sunbaked terrain.  These issues are most acute at higher elevations, where the most snow accumulated over the weekend.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Several natural and human-triggered wind slabs occurred yesterday from increased winds.  These avalanches were all relatively small (<1' thick) and failed on leeward features near alpine ridges and summits.  Southwest to west winds increased further overnight and today, potentially forming fresh slabs or building on existing slabs.  If you are riding in high-consequence terrain above cliffs, gullies, etc, evaluate the recent snow for signs of drifting.  Wind-drifted snow will be thicker and denser than wind-protected snow.  Blowing snow indicates new wind slabs are forming and cracking indicates drifts are unstable. 

    This natural wind slab released on a well-drifted, leeward slope around 4/20.  Similar concerns remain today.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Shallow wet loose avalanches can be triggered or run naturally under warming temperatures and sunshine.  Today's wet loose avalanches should be confined to the recent snow, and will be relatively harmless unless they carry you into terrain traps.  Use caution in steep terrain if you see rollerballs and pinwheels.  You can move to mellower terrain or colder aspects to manage the problem.  

    A natural loose avalanche on Mount Emmons over the weekend.  This slide represents the expected size today.  Our current wet loose problem should involve just the recent snow and run above the old crust.

Avalanche Discussion

After a long winter of patiently dealing with large and unpredictable persistent slab issues, backcountry skiers and riders are enjoying a relatively friendly spring snowpack with small and manageable avalanche problems. The weekend storm spruced up riding quality with a few inches of new snow below treeline and 5" to 10" above treeline (up to ~1" of SWE at 11,500').    A modest increase in westerly wind speeds on Saturday night spurred a handful of natural and skier-triggered D1 wind slabs above treeline.  A similar pattern could continue with today's stronger winds in terrain where winds encounter dry snow for transport, such as from flat alpine fetches or cross-drifting on northerlies. 

Temperatures are expected to climb 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday; therefore, more slopes are expected to transition from dry snow to wet snow later today, causing decreasing stability.  There's more recent snow available to shed the higher you go in elevation.  Watch for the problem to develop in wind-protected and sun-baked terrain at mid-to-upper elevations today.  A similar pattern is expected to continue tomorrow, with warmer temperatures and decreased winds fostering more shallow, wet loose activity focused on higher elevations.  

Regions covered