Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist across the forecast area. A continued warming trend may result in isolated wet snow instability during peak daytime temperatures. Remain vigilant for signs of unstable surface snow on steep solar slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    As temperatures continue to climb today, wet loose instability will be possible at all elevations and nearly all aspects. As of now, we have yet to see a large wet loose avalanche in this warm weather. That being said, these slides can still be hazardous for an unsuspecting skier or snowmobiler. If triggered, these slides could carry you through trees, over rocks, and down steep slopes. This problem will reach its peak instability in the late afternoon, when temperatures max. Use small test slopes to look for reactivity and broader stability of an area. Roller balls, pinwheels, wet surface snow, and thigh deep punchy snow are all signs of rising instability. Remain vigilant on steep (greater than 30 degrees) solar slopes in the late afternoon.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Large cornices exist at ridge tops across the majority of the forecast area. With the continued warm temperatures, and poor overnight refreeze, these cornices are weakening quickly. It is only a matter of time till these blocks come crashing down the slope. Limit your time and exposure under cornices. At the top of a ridge, give the edge some extra space as compared to usual. 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's field observations revealed minimal wet snow instability. A light wind out of the west likely helped in cooling surface snow and mitigating any larger warming issues. The warming trend will continue today, with similar wind and sky cover expected. Wet snow avalanches (such as wet loose and wet slab) can be tricky to forecast in terms of timing, likelihood, and size. As of now, we have yet to see significant action (thanks to decent overnight refreeze), but today could be a little different. Keep your eyes peeled for signs of destabilizing surface snow. 

Yesterday, forecasters traversed the southwest end of the forecast area, launching from the Castle Creek road and headed west. Visited areas include Boulder Peak, Whalan summit, and the Mumbo area. Snow surfaces were quite firm in the early morning, with shaded zones still holding cold powder. By midday, surfaces had softened considerably, though not showing significant signs of warming, Roller balls and pinwheels were viewed on solar slopes. One large cornice fall was identified in the Seven Lakes Basin, having likely occurred in the last couple of days.

Forecasters also visited Gray Butte to troubleshoot the weather stations. As of now, the weather stations are back up and running! In terms of snow, similar conditions were observed. There were signs of recent wet loose activity, but for the day, snow surfaces were relatively stable.

The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake roads remain closed. The Siskiyou County Road Department currently lacks a functioning snow blower and is awaiting new equipment. Snow removal will begin as soon as possible, hopefully within the next two weeks.

Regions covered