Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Upper elevations have begun to cool but lower and mid-elevations will remain above freezing for another day.  Give the snowpack another day to stabilize and put a buffer between you and terrain that could still produce large wet slab avalanches.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The likelihood of natural or human-triggered wet snow avalanches will continue to decrease with a shift towards drier conditions and sustained colder temperatures at upper elevations.  At higher elevations where you find a firm supportable crust, the wet snow hazard will be lower.  Lower and middle elevations will stay near or above freezing for another day.  Let the transition play out and continue to travel cautiously, steering clear of steep open terrain where you still find wet and punchy snow.  This is becoming a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem so time and space are your best bets until we fully exit this extended period of warm and wet weather. 

    There are two persistent weak layers that wet slabs likely released on over the last few days; small facets buried on or around January 8th in the top 1/2 of the snowpack and a series of crusts and large weak grains from December in the lower 1/3rd of the snowpack.  Wet slabs may fail on any of these interfaces as water drains through the snowpack. Slides may fracture widely across terrain features, and carry the entire season's snowpack with it.  

    In areas where mild weather continues, weakened cornices, glide avalanches, wet loose, and other wet snow-related hazards may occur. If the sun pops out on Friday, you may see small rollerballs or small wet loose avalanches on steep sunny slopes at higher elevations that have a few inches of new snow. 

    (1/27/2024)

    A natural wet slab avalanche that ran on Sunday near Harts Pass.

    Photo: Ryan Stoddard

Avalanche Discussion

Weather stations showed lighter but continuous precipitation through much of Wednesday night and Thursday with temperatures cooling at upper stations during the day Thursday.  On Tuesday, observers noted significant new and recent wet snow avalanche activity near Washington Pass (photos below), underscoring how active and prolonged this period of elevated danger has been. On Sunday, warm temperatures and rain resulted in natural slab and loose wet avalanches from Harts Pass. Prior to the warm-up on Saturday, observers on Kangaroo Ridge reported a large collapse on the January 8th facets and audible natural avalanches in nearby terrain. On Friday, observers remotely triggered a very large persistent slab avalanche on an east aspect at 6,000ft in Leap Creek. 

On the 24th, NWAC forecasters traveled near Blue Lake. At a profile site (NW, 6,650ft), they found propagating test results on the January 8th facets ↓65cm and sudden collapse failures on old facets and crusts from December. The structure of older, stiff slabs over the thin, weak layer of January 8th facets, ~2 feet below the surface, matches a profile near the Poster Peak avalanche.  If you're in the mountains, please let us know what you find.

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