Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You may be able to trigger avalanches at upper elevations where new snow and wind form fresh drifts. Look for cracking in the snow and recent drifts to show you where you could trigger these avalanches. If the sun comes out, you may see wet avalanches where there's enough recent soft snow on the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Light snow and southwest winds will continue overnight and taper by daybreak on Monday. You could trigger shallow wind slab avalanches on leeward slopes steeper than 35 degrees. 

    While you may not see blowing snow, recent drifts and stiffer feeling snow will help you identify which aspects have been recently loaded.  Other clues to these avalanches are long shooting cracks or observing stiffer snow as you move higher in terrain.  Steer around deeper pillows of drifted snow on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. If you're unsure, stick to lower angle and wind-sheltered terrain away from ridgelines.

    (2/9/2024)

    Skiers triggered a very small (6" deep) windslab avalanche that ran on the 1/31 crust. Copper Creek, SE, 7200ft

    Photo: Harry Keane

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    You may be able to trigger loose avalanches on steep slopes where the surfaces are soft and dry. There may be enough clearing in the afternoon to see some small loose avalanches on steep, southerly slopes. Watch for clearing clouds and the warming of the snow. Rollerballs and moist snow surfaces can clue you into the increasing instability. If you see these warning signs, move to shaded aspects or slopes less than 35 degrees before the snow starts sliding.

    (2/10/2024)

    The sun triggered small wet avalanche coming from rocky features. ESE, 7,500ft, Black Peak

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

Observers reported 3-4" of new snow on Sunday. You can expect a few more inches of snow by Monday morning. Check the recent storm interfaces, including how this week's snow is bonding to the 1/31 crust, 1-1.5 feet below the surface. You may find a recent, thin crust just under the surface on steep, sunny slopes.

Recently, observers have reported small, natural loose avalanches, both sun-triggered and of the dry variety on shaded slopes. On Friday and Sunday, forecasters traveled in the mountains north of Mazama and Winthrop. They found a well-settled, shallower snowpack, with a similar 1/31 crust in the upper snowpack but lacking the old December melt forms found in the lower snowpack, closer to Washington Pass. Recent storm totals on the 1/31 crust are similar, if slightly less than near Washington Pass above 6,000ft. Of note, most slopes that were examined near and east of Mazama On Thursday, NWAC forecasters and avalanche professionals found 8-10"(20-25cm) of settled, dry snow at upper elevations over the stout 1/31 crust. Favored upper elevation terrain held as much as 1.5' (45cm) over the crust, while lower elevations had as little as 2". Small facets were found in some locations just above the 1/31 crust.

Below the 1/31 crust, most of the snowpack got moist or wet during the late January rain event. The December melt form/facets are no longer a layer of concern. In the eastern mountains, the snowpack is shallow below 5,000ft. Snowpack information is limited outside of the Highway 20 corridor, including Harts Pass, the Chelan Sawtooths, and near and east of Mazama. If you're traveling in these areas, let us know what you find by submitting an observation.

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