Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snowfall and strong winds are creating dangerous wind slabs especially on north and east facing slopes near and above treeline. Watch for cracking and collapsing, as these are obvious signs of avalanche hazard. Wind slab avalanches have a potential to “step down” to weak layers near the ground creating a large avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    New snow has fallen on a wide variety of snow surfaces, rock to suncrust and everything in between. SW winds are forecast to continue throughout the day, however ASB TopPatrol is showing a shift in wind direction this morning with W-WNW winds. These winds will actively load leeward slopes and gullies. Backcountry travelers should identify and avoid wind accumulated snow and the resulting berms, drifts and mounds.  Watch for cracking and be aware of hollow sounding snow--both obvious signs of instability. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack remains the larger hazard on slopes of near and above treeline and all aspects.  This is a challenging problem to negotiate as it presents a low probability but high consequence scenario.  These avalanches will likely trigger with no warning. Steeper slopes at high elevations present the most significant probability of being triggered. The exception is mid and low-elevation south-facing slopes, where snow coverage is minimal and solar radiation has reduced the early season snowpack.   Skiers and riders entering the backcountry should understand this hard-to-predict risk.  

Avalanche Discussion

Results from full column tests CT20 and ECTX  indicate that the snowpack has strengthened and weak layers within the upper snowpack have stablized with the warm weather earlier this week. However, snowpack structure still remains poor with weak basal layers under a stiff slab. This faceted weak layer will likely be triggered in a shallow area near rocks or cliffs. 

The incoming storm added 7+” of snow and winds will continue to redistribute snow to leeward slopes and terrain features. Wind slabs will continue to develop throughout the day and grow in size and reactivity.   Avoid areas with a cohesive slab, especially if cracking or shearing is observed.

Thus far, no avalanches have been observed or reported this season.  This will likely change within the next week, significant snow is forecast for the next ten days.   Egress and regress remain challenging, but in some places, they are achievable without significant hazards.  Be wary of seemingly snow covered slopes, many of these areas had significant rock before this storm.

Regions covered