Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as strong wind and recent snow have built thick and sensitive slabs. You can trigger wind slab avalanches that fail within or at the old snow/new snow interface or persistent slab avalanches that break deeper down in the snowpack on facet layers that formed prior to this latest storm.  In either case, these avalanches could be large and able to break widely across the slope.  Avoid being on our connected to slopes over 35 degrees giving avalanche paths wide berths as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from below or from a long-distance away.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted weak layers formed around crusts, previous slabs, and on some slopes, near-surface facets formed in the upper 20cms of the snowpack.  These persistent weak layers are capped by a cohesive slab of varying thickness and stiffness. Pay attention to loud audible whumpfs and shooting cracks as these are indications of unstable snow.  Avoid being on or connected to steep slopes above as it is possible to trigger an avalanche from below.   These avalanches could be large enough to injure or bury you.   

    Faceted weak layers now have a cohesive slab on top from the recent storm snow. These weak layers are widespread and can be found at all elevations.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong W/SW winds combined with recent snow have created thick wind slabs near and above treeline. These slabs formed on top of firm crusts and older hard slabs making for a good bed surface. Yesterday, these slabs were sensitive and cracking long distances and could be 2 to 4 feet thick on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies.  Pay attention to shooting cracks and stiffening of the snow surface and avoid slopes that are actively loading.  These wind slab avalanches have the ability to break widely across a slope and could be large enough to be buried. 

     

    Yesterday these slabs were reactive with widespread shooting cracks and remotely triggering avalanches from the ridgelines.  The winds have not let up, and with an abundance of available snow for transport

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals measured at Poco Gusto weather station are 22" of snow with 1.55 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE).  W/SW winds have been in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts in the 50's at ridgetops over the last 48 hours helping to drift and transport snow into stiffening more cohesive slabs.  Today will bring a return of the sun and temperatures warming into 20's.  With our intense sun this time of year we may see loose dry snow avalanches start around rock bands that are directly in the sun.  These types of avalanches start as a small point release but can entrain more snow as slides down the slope, or potential step down and trigger deeper slab avalanche.

Yesterday's visibility was not great but did observe some large natural avalanches that started above treeline where we've had the most amount of loading from wind transported snow. Slabs at these upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines could be close to 4 feet deep. In travels near treeline, I was finding reactive wind slabs either triggering avalanches or getting widespread cracking.  These avalanches were failing on the old snow / new snow interface or within the recent storm snow.  Although the predominant wind direction is out of the W/SW, the box canyon wind effect we see here had snow being transported from all directions.  

Faceted weak layers that formed prior to this storm either as near-surface facets or around crusts or sandwiched between older wind slabs now have a cohesive slab on top.  This includes below treeline terrain where thick layers of weak faceted can be found. Last week's good skiing on this layer is today's problem.  I was getting these layers to collapse in travels and was getting easy results in extended column tests.        

Challenging and complex conditions exist, but you can use terrain selection to help mitigate the overall danger by sticking to slopes less than 35 degrees, giving avalanche path wide berths. Low angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide the safest skiing and riding options for today. Don't get lured into chasing steep powder on a bluebird sunny day.

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