Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack is generally stable and triggering an avalanche is unlikely today.  However, we've seen a steady string of large, natural cornice falls this week (Example A, Example B), which is cause for heightened concerns on alpine terrain with cornices.  Limit your exposure below large, overhanging cornices and the runouts below them. Stay cautious of unusually shallow slopes where there is a rare chance that you can trigger an avalanche that breaks into old weak layers. 

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Large, overhanging cornices continue to fall on a daily basis under our current warming trend.   Some are capable of triggering destructive slab avalanches, while others are trundling down slope entraining large amounts of snow with car-sized chunks of cornice debris.  Limit your exposure on slopes with large cornices above, and give them a wide berth if you are traveling along corniced ridgelines.  

    A recent cornice fall in Redwell Basin.  Minimize your exposure to terrain like this.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Large, stubborn slabs several feet thick or more exist over faceted weak layers in the snowpack.  Avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers have become infrequent in recent weeks.  The most concerning slopes are shallow and rocky or where large cornice falls could act as triggers. The greatest number of avalanches have occurred on easterly-facing slopes where wind loading this month has overlapped with faceted crusts.  Early warning signs for this avalanche problem are rare and feedback is infrequent.  Safer riding is where the snowpack is deep and without cornices above.  

    Very large persistent slab on the east face of Gothic Mountain. 3/31. This avalanche was likely triggered by a cornice falling onto the slope. 

Avalanche Discussion

Cloudy skies are expected to keep snow surfaces mostly frozen today, limiting wet loose avalanche concerns.  If we get enough sunshine for daytime greenhousing, low-elevation northerly aspects could get mushy enough for some shallow wet sluffs, like this.  Following yesterday's warmup, you can still sniff out good powder on higher, northerly aspects.  If your objectives are guarded by large, overhanging cornices, set your up tracks in safe terrain and don't linger below those teetering semi-trucks on your descent.   We've documented nearly a dozen large cornice falls over the past few days (See the gallery below).  Cornice falls are capable of triggering very large slabs or can run surprisingly far distances on their own.  

Persistent slabs are gradually becoming increasingly stubborn and isolated with each day of dry, warm weather.  Apart from cornice-triggered persistent slabs, our greatest concerns for rare human triggering are in areas that have unusually shallow snow depths (less than about 5 feet or 150 cm), more commonly in the Southeast Mountains.   This remotely triggered slide near Independence Pass on Thursday highlights the issue.

Looking ahead, tomorrow is the start of our biggest warmup and first major spring thaw of the season, with mountain temperatures rising towards 50 degrees by Monday or Tuesday.  As the warmup progresses, our concerns for larger wet avalanches will increase, along with the continued threat of random cornice falls.   As is often the case with meltwater-driven instabilities, we will have some uncertainty about the specifics of if, when, and where larger wet avalanche issues will develop.  However, we have high confidence that you can find the safest conditions in the next few days by traveling early when the snowpack is frozen or just starting to soften.  If you are getting a late start in the coming days, aim for aspects that stay colder or get sun later in the day.    Standard spring travel advice.  

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