Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on steep south, east, and north facing aspects and will increase in hazard throughout the day. You could trigger an avalanche large enough to bury multiple people and damage trees in areas of wind drifted snow. These drifts may be easily triggered by a person or avalanche naturally. Use conservative route choices if traveling in or under steep terrain today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Dangerous wind slab avalanches that are sensitive to human triggers are likely on south, east and north aspects above 3000 feet in elevation. It is also possible that areas may avalanche naturally. As winds increase throughout the day and snow accumulates, the avalanche problem will continue to develop in size and sensitivity. You could easily trigger a wind slab large enough to bury a person. In some areas these slabs could be very large, with the ability to bury multiple people, damage trees and reach further down in runout zones. Pay attention to the terrain above you today. Ravine level winds may not be representative of the increased hazard and wind slabs forming in start zones may not be seen because of reduced visibility. Areas that cross avalanche paths, like the Summer Lion’s Head Trail, could be especially dangerous. Signs of recent avalanches, blowing snow, and shooting cracks under your feet are all signs that the avalanche hazard is increasing. Conservative decision making around avalanche terrain will be essential. Use caution when traveling in or under steep terrain and consider avoiding steep snow-loaded slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

 

Over the past 5 days, the summit of Mount Washington has recorded 21.6 inches of snow. Wind slabs will continue to increase in size today with an additional 1-3 inches of snow throughout the day. There is also the possibility that the sensitivity of wind slabs will increase as wind speeds increase today. Don’t take today’s CONSIDERABLE hazard rating lightly. Although we have been at this hazard rating for several days, the avalanche hazard is still dangerous. Cautious route-finding and conservative terrain choices are essential today.

Yesterday several observations reported natural avalanches in areas like Hillman’s Highway which ran large and far down in the runout zone (Obs 1 & Obs 2). Other observations (Obs 1 & Obs 2) confirmed active wind loading and low visibility to see up into terrain. This morning the forecasting team has uncertainty about the possible size of wind slabs. If a natural avalanche cycle was widespread yesterday, wind slabs will be more limited in size (D2); however these will still be large enough to bury a person. If a natural avalanche cycle did not happen, the wind slabs could be very large (D3) and difficult to accurately assess sensitivity. These larger wind slabs could bury multiple people, damage trees and go far into runout zones as seen with the Hillman’s debris. With more snow throughout the day and wind speeds increasing, the avalanche problem remains dangerous and concerning. 

The forecasting team would like to thank everyone who has submitted observations over the past week and throughout this season. These have been invaluable to us and used every morning when developing the avalanche forecast. This week in particular, with an active storm cycle, our team has been very appreciative of all the information you have been sending us and the community. The forecast becomes more accurate with more data and your observations have contributed significantly to the product we post every morning. Thank you!

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

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