Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's possible to trigger an avalanche where you find stiff, wind-drifted snow that sits on top of facets and depth hoar. The most dangerous slopes face Northwest through East and cross-loaded West aspects near and above treeline. Below treeline in steep terrain on northerly aspects, the snowpack is cohesionless with faceting top to bottom. You can trigger a smaller loose dry avalanche, but one that could gouge to the ground. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Northerly, East, and a few cross-loaded West aspects at upper elevations, slabs up to several feet thick exist on top of an extremely weak, faceted snowpack. These slabs formed from moderate winds over the last week after the storm.  It's becoming more stubborn to trigger an avalanche as we push further away from our last loading event, but not impossible.  Pay attention to supportable or stiffening snow underfoot, or take the time to dig a quick snow pit or probe pole to identify if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists before committing to a slope. Any avalanche triggered could be large enough to injure or bury you, potentially running on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

    Steep slopes like these at upper elevations and on the leeward sides of the ridgeline are where you're more likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche as these slopes have stiffer more cohesive slabs from winds over the last week

    (1/27/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    In wind sheltered areas in steep shady northerly facing terrain, the snowpack is completely cohesionless with ski and boot penetration near the ground. It's possible to trigger loose snow avalanches with the most dangerous slopes being steep and sustained with terrain traps below.  These avalanches have the potential to gouge down to the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

    A small loose snow avalanche that gouged to the ground in depth hoar taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

    (1/26/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

Last night's full snow moon unfortunately won't bring any snow as we kick off February.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 30's and low 40's with sunny skies and light winds over the next several days as a Rex Block continues to bring high pressure to the west. It's not until the 10th or so when the ridge breaks down, and we could potentially see the next chance at significant snow. There's still soft turns to be had (depth hoar riding), but it continues to remain a shallow snowpack with lots of ground hazards still present.  

The avalanche danger has eased since the last storm on the 24/25th that brought 12 - 18 inches of snow as triggering persistent slab avalanches have become more stubborn. The last week of high pressure has deteriorated any cohesive slabs, except for wind prone areas at higher elevations. These near and above treeline slopes are where you can find stiffer more cohesive slabs from moderate winds over the last week. These slabs rest on top of facets and depth hoar deeper down in the snowpack, and should be fairly easy to identify, as the often times have wave like features on the surface, will feel stiffer underfoot and be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines or cross-loaded terrain features. If the snow is soft underfoot, chances are there is no slab, and no persistent slab avalanche problem.

 In wind sheltered areas mainly near and below treeline on northerly aspects, the slabs have deteriorated significantly and you'll find it easy to sink into the early season facets and depth hoar as you travel. This will provide better riding, but bring your fat boards if you plan on surfing the facets and depth hoar.  In steep terrain it's possible to produce a loose snow avalanche that gouges into the facets and depth hoar near the ground. A small release like this wouldn't be all that dangerous on its own but could easily cause injury if it knocks you off your feet or pushes you into a nasty terrain trap.   

This season is shaping up similar to last years, where "bigger" storms bring snow, followed by prolonged periods of high pressure. This leads to a shallow snowpack, with faceting happening during the dry periods in-between.  This forms a widespread weak layer, but slabs tend to deteriorate quickly after storms, especially since we haven't had the typical strong winds we often see here. If we do see significant snow again, expect these faceted weak layers to struggle. There's at least some hope of the Rex Block breaking down around the 10th and a weather pattern shift for the middle of February. Until then, enjoy the sunshine, warm temperatures and the ability to do non snow activities like biking or climbing.  

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