Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 2,500' for Persistent Slab avalanches. The danger is LOW elsewhere. 

Be wary of stepping into steep terrain today, where you find more than just a few inches of new snow. You could trigger loose snow avalanches or sluffs that could knock you off your feet and carry you downhill—these may break wider than you expect. 

You could trigger a larger slide on slopes with a shallow snowpack, where buried weak layers near the ground are closer to the surface and easier for a skier or rider to trigger. 

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Thank you to the Super Saturated Sugar Strings and all those who joined us last night for the HPAC Cabin Fever Reliever!

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It's been a week since a party on Microdot remote triggered a large persistent slab avalanche (observation here). During that time, mild temperatures have promoted settlement, but faceting has continued throughout our thin snowpack. It remains possible to trigger a consequential avalanche 1-3' deep on weak snow near the ground.

    You are most likely to encounter this problem in upper-elevation terrain where our season's snowpack is resting on weak, sugary snow near the ground. Your chances of finding and triggering a persistent slab avalanche up to 3' deep will be highest near steep, shallow, rocky terrain.

    The easiest way to manage this problem is to select terrain with a steepness of less than about 30 degrees. If you do choose to get into avalanche terrain (slopes steeper than 30 degrees), you can pick terrain with a seemingly uniformly deep snow pack greater than about 3' deep—although be aware that you could trigger a slide from the edges or the middle of a slope where the snowpack is shallow and variable. 

    Naturally triggered persistent slab avalanche in Upper Willow Creek.

    Photo: Andy Paul

Avalanche Discussion

Enjoy the light refresh of snow today, but be wary of stepping onto steep slopes with more than a few inches of new snow. If you find more than just a couple of inches of new snow, here are a few things to consider:

  • It has been 10 days since the last recorded snowfall, and new snow is falling onto a weak, faceted snow surface. In very steep terrain, dry loose avalanches or sluffs could knock you off your feet and carry you where you don’t want to go—especially in places where wind has drifted snow or stiffened and consolidated the new snow. These slides could break wider than you expect.
  • Skiers near Friendship Pass found unstable test results failing below a thin crust that formed in late January. Following the snowfall at the end of January, we saw avalanche activity involving this crust. Despite almost two weeks of mild temperatures, we can’t rule out the possibility of triggering a slide on this crust; however, without more snowfall, it’s less likely that this crust will become active.
  • Slopes with a shallow snowpack remain the primary concern, where buried weak layers near the ground are closer to the surface and easier for a skier or rider to trigger. Be wary of stepping onto steep slopes with a shallow snowpack and exposed rocks.

It is great to see snowfall return to Hatcher Pass, and this light refresh should improve skiing and snowmachining conditions. However, a generally shallow snowpack with multiple buried weak layers and weak snow at the surface has us cautious about entering steep terrain where you find more than just a couple of inches of new snow. Hedge your bets by calming the powder fever, taking time to assess a slope for new snow problems, and considering the consequences of triggering a larger, more destructive slide failing deeper in the snowpack.

The danger is expected to increase tomorrow, with instability likely peaking late tonight. If you find yourself skiing or riding this evening, recognize that the danger is increasing. This danger bump is highly contingent on how much snowfall accumulates over the next 24 hours, as forecast models are not fully in agreement on expected totals by tomorrow morning.

 

RECENT AVALANCHES: 

Last weekend, a party remotely triggered a large persistent slab avalanche on Microdot after several people had skied the slope. Read the forecaster observation for Microdot here. There have been no reported or observed avalanches in the last week. See all recent observations here.

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