Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Forecast snow amounts are modest, but you can still trigger a slab avalanche—particularly on wind-loaded slopes.  Assess stability as you travel and default to lower-angle terrain to reduce uncertainty.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow will fall on a mix of surfaces, including crusts, wind-affected snow, and possibly weak, faceted snow on northerly aspects. Even shallow accumulations may form thin, reactive slabs where there is a poor bond to the old snow surface. Warming through the day could also stiffen the surface and make the snow more slabby. Use small test slopes and quick hand pits to assess bonding as you travel, and track how new snow depth changes with elevation and aspect.

    West North is expected to see less wind and snowfall than forecast zones to the south, but don’t let that fool you—west winds in the North Cascades can be uneven, with pockets of moderate transport and localized loading between areas of near total calm. Most areas will receive 3 to 6 inches of new snow by Thursday morning. If you find more than that or encounter stronger winds, expect greater danger and adjust your plan accordingly.

    (12/8/2021) 

    A long shooting crack means you definitely found unstable snow and are much more likely to trigger a slab on a steeper slope.

Avalanche Discussion

Keep an eye out for snow shedding from trees, fresh rollerballs, and other signs of wet avalanche instability as the day warms. Clouds should keep the sun in check, but it’ll still be warm enough for snow to shed off cliffs and steep features, and trigger small avalanches on slopes below.

Conditions were indeed mixed today, with very different reports from opposite sides of the Baker Backcountry. Those in more sheltered areas, like Swift Creek, found signs of wind transport but no slab formation. There were a few inches of moist, “surfy” new snow, a few rollerballs, and no significant avalanche problems. A bit later in the day high up on Herman, observers found very strong winds, erratic wind loading patterns, and small but touchy wind slabs.  As the day progressed, similar conditions began to show up slightly lower as well.

One upside to the wind and warming is that it likely beat up any weak, faceted snow at the surface. Still, Thursday isn’t a free pass. If snowfall amounts or wind come in higher than forecast—or you find a slab that formed over facets—you could trigger an avalanche large enough to bury or carry you into consequential terrain. It’s also just as possible that conditions stay manageable, with stubborn slabs confined to isolated features.

Don’t lock in a plan too early. Check how weather factors play out overnight and be ready to adjust based on what you find in the morning.

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