Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Winter has returned to the Olympics along with dangerous avalanche conditions.  Larger slab avalanches can be triggered on wind-loaded slopes near and below ridgelines and anywhere avalanches break down to older snow layers.  Many obstacles lurk just below the unconsolidated new snow so travel cautiously in areas that previously had no/little snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    We're in for another day of moderate ridgeline winds with lots of new and recent cold dry snow to blow around.  Avoid steeper wind loaded terrain where you can trigger a wind slab avalanche.  Look for clues like blowing snow, textured snow surfaces and fresh cornices to help you discern which slopes have been recently loaded.  Red flags like shooting cracks in wind-drifted snow are signs you'll likely trigger an avalanche on nearby steep slopes.  Choose simple, less wind-affected terrain.  New cornices may be fragile and ready to break.  Give them a wide berth along ridgelines and be aware of parties on slopes below you. 

    A weak snow/crust interface ~3' down in the Hurricane Ridge area may allow deep avalanches to surprise you by breaking wider and around terrain features.  If you experience collapses or audible whumpfs while traveling, immediately dial back your terrain selection and retreat to lower angle slopes without overhead exposure.  Deep snow has limited direct snowpack observations so tread carefully until we know more about the likelihood of triggering a deeper avalanche on this layer. 

    (2/29/2024)

    There is a large amount of new snow available for transport and we saw moderate amounts of blowing snow forming sharp new cornices.

    Photo: Kaitlin Harrigan

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    At lower elevations and in more sheltered areas, light low-density snow has been incrementally piling up as we've shifted from a stormy pattern to a showery and colder regime.  While this is the type of snow most of us seek out, there are a few things to keep in mind to stay safe.  Use caution around very steep (40+ degree) terrain features like convex rollovers where you might trigger a loose dry avalanche.   Loose dry avalanches or sluffs, may not be big enough to bury you but could knock you off your feet.  Getting swept off a cliff, or into dense trees or a tree well are real examples of how a small avalanche quickly becomes an issue in the wrong piece of terrain.  Natural dry loose avalanches are possible on very steep slopes following periods of heavier snowfall or on sunny slopes if the sun pops out for an extended stretch and temperatures rise. 

    Natural loose dry avalanches triggered by tree-bombs at Hurricane Ridge. SE asp, L-N-R1-D1-S.  Example from a past season.

    Photo: ONP Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

Preliminary Accident Report: An avalanche accident occurred on Friday, March 1 near Darland Mt in the Ahtanum Meadows area (East South Zone). Two snowmobilers were involved in the slide. One rider was fully buried and killed. The avalanche occurred around 6600ft in a generally east-facing bowl. NWAC staff will visit the accident site on Saturday. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community.

Olympics Discussion: 

A significant storm system impacted the Olympics over the last few days, transforming the landscape by literally doubling the snowpack in some areas and bringing snow back down to lower elevations.  At Hurricane Ridge, almost 3.5" of water translated into 3-4' of new snow above 4500' since Wednesday.  Weather stations in other parts of the range above 4000' showed increases measured in feet as well.  Cold temperatures, snow showers and periods of moderate to even strong ridgeline winds will impact the area over the short term. 

NPS and NWAC professionals in the Hurricane Ridge area on Thursday found deep trail breaking and touchy avalanche conditions along ridgelines with freshly drifted snow along with recent storm slab avalanches.  While the storm dropped the new snow evenly across the landscape, winds were easily transporting the low density snow during the day and forming new cornices and wind features along ridgelines.  A notable whumpf was noted on one slope, a sign that weak snow (facets) above the old snow surface from last week (2/25) may allow for avalanches to break deeper and wider than expected. 

Travelers also noted the odd reality where deep unconsolidated snow was not enough to fully eliminate travel hazards related to the previously thin snowpack.  Be mindful of aspect and elevation while traveling as you're likely to encounter logs, creeks, holes, rocks or other not-so-fun stuff waiting for you underneath the new snow.   Conversely,  all of the new snow has not settled and deep snow immersion/tree wells are a real concern in areas as additional snow piles up.  Ride with a partner and keep one another within sight. 

2023-2024 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December to early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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