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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2018–Feb 13th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Natural avalanches have slowed down but human triggering is still a real concern.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wind, wind wind...Tuesday if forecast to be cloudy with scattered flurries and an alpine temperature of -6c.  The interesting part of Tuesday is that the wind will be westerly at 60km/h with gusts to 100km/h+

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed. Natural avalanches were still happening on Sunday so human triggering is still pretty high...

Snowpack Summary

A profile at 2200m showed the Jan. 18 surface hoar layer is down 40cm, Jan 6 surface hoar layer is down 60cm and the Dec 15 facets is down 90cm.  The surface hoar layers(Jan 18 and Jan 6) are not producing any test results.  The Dec 15 facets layer was producing a hard compression test and was sudden planar in nature on loose facets.  The November crusts have turned into facets at this elevation.  The bottom 70cm of the snowpack consists of facets which is about half of the snow pack at this elevation.The bigger concern is still for human triggering at tree line and in the alpine.  Tuesday is forecast for strong winds along with strong gusts; so I bet wherever there was no wind slab, there will be lots of it.  Stay tuned...

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.