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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2014–Dec 14th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Load is the word of the day. Look for loaded and cross-loaded areas. Don't overload the slope from shallow areas. Load your pack with food and water for a big day, and un-load your memory card and load it back up with blue-bird pictures!

Weather Forecast

Outstanding cool day expected in the forecast area. Temperatures expected to start down in the minus mid-teens in the morning and warm to cool single digits over the day. Light variable winds shifting north to south over the day. Comfortable day to be digging in the snow looking for crusts.

Snowpack Summary

A steady cooling trend overnight and over the day tightening up the storm instability. Touchy conditions still exist in isolated areas at tree line and sub alpine elevations in cross-loaded and lee features. The facet crust layers near the base of the snowpack are the most susceptible to human triggering especially from shallow areas.

Avalanche Summary

Previous activity offering interesting results on the November rain crust persistent weak layer. Long delays of a few minutes after an explosive detonation at Marmot Basin released a size 3 that ran much further than expected from a heavily loaded ridge top feature.

Confidence

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.