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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 20th, 2016–Dec 21st, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Three days of strong SW winds have changed the landscape. Cautious route finding and conservative decisions are called for.

Weather Forecast

Moderate to Strong SW winds will continue through Wednesday night and maybe 5-10cm of snow by Thursday morning. The Icefields area may get 10-20cm by Friday. Temperatures will hover around -10 to -15. 

Snowpack Summary

Strong SW winds and ridge top transport of faceted snow has occurred for the past 72 hours. Expect new wind slabs in lee areas and cross loaded gullies. Suspect surface hoar (Dec 11) in sheltered NE aspects around treeline (2100-2300m). Nov crust is now on the surface in scoured areas and as deep as 1m+ on lee aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's patrol noted a size 1.5 slab 100m below the crevasse rescue wind lip on parkers ridge. It was 80m wide and 40cm deep. Monday was noted numerous wind slabs to sz 1.5 in alpine gulley features and steep NE aspects. We expect that  these types of terrain features will be re-loaded with the current strong winds.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.