Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Dec 21 – 22, 2016Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Three days of strong SW winds have changed the landscape. Cautious route finding and conservative decisions are called for.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    72 hours of intense ridgetop transport due to strong SW winds has created windslabs. Numerous natural avalanches were observed from a variety of aspects, particularly alpine gulley features and planar NE slopes.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–3
    The depth of this crust is now highly variable, and may as deep as 1m in lee areas that have received significant loading due to strong SW winds. Careful evaluation of this interface is essential with this new loading pattern.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Although there has been extensive scouring, the weak facets will likely continue to shed from steep rocky terrain.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

Moderate to Strong SW winds will continue through Wednesday night and maybe 5-10cm of snow by Thursday morning. The Icefields area may get 10-20cm by Friday. Temperatures will hover around -10 to -15. 

Snowpack Summary

Strong SW winds and ridge top transport of faceted snow has occurred for the past 72 hours. Expect new wind slabs in lee areas and cross loaded gullies. Suspect surface hoar (Dec 11) in sheltered NE aspects around treeline (2100-2300m). Nov crust is now on the surface in scoured areas and as deep as 1m+ on lee aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's patrol noted a size 1.5 slab 100m below the crevasse rescue wind lip on parkers ridge. It was 80m wide and 40cm deep. Monday was noted numerous wind slabs to sz 1.5 in alpine gulley features and steep NE aspects. We expect that  these types of terrain features will be re-loaded with the current strong winds.

Regions covered