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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2012–Jan 11th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snopack conditions

Weather Forecast

Mostly clear and dry for the forecast period. Although warmer on Thursday and Friday, freezing levels are expected to remain in or near valley bottoms. Winds are expected to be light but gusty northwesterlies.

Avalanche Summary

A skier was killed in a Size 3 avalanche in the Dogtooth range near Golden on Friday. The 4th skier on the slope triggered the slide. On Saturday a skier triggered another Size 3 persistent slab avalanche in the Quartz Creek alpine, the crown averaged 100cm in depth & the avalanche was reported to have run full path. The group had been skiing in the area all day without result until the avalanche happened. Avalanche activity on Sunday was confined to operational explosive use & produced avalanches to Size 2 on high elevation NE facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and light to moderate precipitation settled the 40-60cm of recent storm snow and created upside down slabs and/or thin surface crust on Monday. Since then, light amounts dry snow is maintaining the snow supply for wind slab development, but cold temperatures are likely starting to improve storm slab stability. Touchy mid-December surface hoar and basal facets remain a persistent problem. Recent snowpack tests produced easy results that show a high propensity to propagate fractures. When combined with weak wind slabs, thin trigger points, other weaknesses within and under the recent storm snow, the result is a highly variable snowpack with the potential for deep slab avalanches, especially from heavy, thin spot, and/or step-down triggers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.