Avalanche forecast

Purcells

Jan 10 – 11, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 15 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    2–5
    Weak wind slabs are lurking below ridgecrests, behind terrain features and in cross-loaded gullies. Hard drum-like wind slabs often have the potential to release well above the trigger point.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–7
    Most concerning on steep, unsupported, open but sheltered, treeline slopes.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    4–7
    Susceptible to human triggers particularly from thin slab spots on variable slopes, heavy impacts, or deep penetration, such as sled tracks trenching. Slabs are likely to release across entire bowls producing highly destructive avalanches.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snopack conditions

Weather Forecast

Mostly clear and dry for the forecast period. Although warmer on Thursday and Friday, freezing levels are expected to remain in or near valley bottoms. Winds are expected to be light but gusty northwesterlies.

Avalanche Summary

A skier was killed in a Size 3 avalanche in the Dogtooth range near Golden on Friday. The 4th skier on the slope triggered the slide. On Saturday a skier triggered another Size 3 persistent slab avalanche in the Quartz Creek alpine, the crown averaged 100cm in depth & the avalanche was reported to have run full path. The group had been skiing in the area all day without result until the avalanche happened. Avalanche activity on Sunday was confined to operational explosive use & produced avalanches to Size 2 on high elevation NE facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and light to moderate precipitation settled the 40-60cm of recent storm snow and created upside down slabs and/or thin surface crust on Monday. Since then, light amounts dry snow is maintaining the snow supply for wind slab development, but cold temperatures are likely starting to improve storm slab stability. Touchy mid-December surface hoar and basal facets remain a persistent problem. Recent snowpack tests produced easy results that show a high propensity to propagate fractures. When combined with weak wind slabs, thin trigger points, other weaknesses within and under the recent storm snow, the result is a highly variable snowpack with the potential for deep slab avalanches, especially from heavy, thin spot, and/or step-down triggers.

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