Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's possible to trigger an avalanche on Northerly and East aspects near and above treeline. Recent snow and transportable west winds have created stiffening wind slabs above treeline that formed on firm hard surfaces from previous wind events.  It's also on these slopes where old weak faceted snow exists and persistent slab avalanches may be possible in these deeper persistent weak layers.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It is possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on weak faceted snow found in the middle and at the ground of the snowpack.  An overall shallow and weak faceted snowpack that lingered on Northerly and East aspects prior to this latest round of snow now have upwards of a foot of new snow on top.  It's where the recent snow has fallen on old snow that we have this poor snowpack structure of strong stiffer slabs resting on top of weak sugary faceted snow.

    Pay attention to obvious bulls-eye clues of instability like audible collapses and shooting cracks.  Take the time to dig down into the snow to assess whether this poor strong over weak snowpack structure exists. It's areas where the slab is less thick on the margins and near rock outcrops that you'll be most likely to impact these weak layers.  Any avalanche triggered right now has the potential to be catastrophic with lots of natural hazards in the shallow snowpack.   

    (11/24/2020) Weak faceted snow with a firm slab from previous strong wind event. New snow now rests on top of these weak layers,

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Transportable wind speeds in the teens and 20's out of the west over the last several days have drifted the recent snow into wind slabs above treeline.  These slabs will most likely be found just below ridgetops on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies.  Pay attention to the stiffening of the snow surface and wind drifted pillows. Any wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

    (11/24/2020) Wind slab that was intentionally triggered on a NE aspect

Avalanche Discussion

A chance of a little snow in the forecast today won't be enough to move the needle for avalanche danger. 12 to 16 inches of snow from the 11/23-24 storm has brought a return to winter for us here in northern New Mexico.  Much of this new snow fell on bare ground and dirt (South and West aspects), and near-surface facets and firm wind slabs near and above treeline (North and East aspects)   This most recent storm started with a significant amount of graupel that continues to be observed in snowpits. Graupel tends to pool beneath cliffs and lower angled terrain where it can collect on slopes.   Moderate winds over the last three days have easily transported and redistributed the new snow at higher elevations into stiffening cohesive slabs. 

Recent natural and skier triggered avalanches over the last couple of days has been confined to North and East aspects above treeline and areas near treeline that act similarly to higher elevations. Several natural avalanches from Tuesday had the ability to propagate wide distances 200 + feet and started beneath cliffs and rock bands. In our travels over the last several days, we continue to get loud audible collapses and shooting cracks on these aspects and elevations.  

Stability tests have produced a mixed bag of results near and above treeline on northerly aspects.  Where we are able to get propagation with easy to moderate force in long column tests is when we are typically finding a stiffer more cohesive slab in the snowpack. In other places, stiff slabs are non-existent or are decomposing that we can't communicate a propagation failure even though the weak overall snowpack is easily collapsed. 

With a fresh coat of white in the mountains, it's become increasingly difficult to tell where old snow had previously existed.  A ski pole can be a great tool to feel for the overall depth of the snowpack as well as the ability to feel for strong over weak layers beneath the surface.  The snowpack is highly variable right now and can change rather quickly. Before committing to a slope take the time to assess if a strong over weak snowpack structure exists.   

Lower angle (less than 35 degrees) wind-sheltered slopes without a strong over weak layering is the best bet today for skiing and riding. 

 

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