Olympics

Although temperatures were cold and likely formed a stout crust on Wednesday, free water continues to move through the snowpack, creating the potential for large glide avalanches on steep smooth bedrock slopes. Avoid traveling on or beneath any large cracks in the snowpack as a glide avalanche will kill you. Also, steer around pockets of shallow chalky or moistening snow on steep slopes approaching 40 degrees where you could trigger a small wind slab or loose wet avalanche.

Hurricane Ridge picked up 3.5" of water equivalent during a significant atmospheric river event. The cycle started as snow at Hurricane Ridge, adding 12" to their snowpack from Monday up until the early morning hours on Tuesday before snow changed to rain, resulting in 13" of snowpack consolidation by 6 PM on Wednesday. You're unlikely to be able to get high enough in the terrain to get above the upper end of the rain/snow line in this storm cycle.  A few inches of dry snow early Wednesday tops off the event.

We expect a refreezing and stout crust that thickens as you ascend in the terrain on Thursday, which may have a shallow amount of new snow above that will be wind-blown into 2-8" slabs you can trigger near and above treeline. On southerly slopes, the surface snow may become sticky and wet as freezing levels skyrocket to 10,500 ft on Thursday. A small wind slab or wet avalanche could push you into a terrain trap or over a cliff on Thursday, so steer around steep slopes approaching 40 degrees where you are most likely to take an unexpected ride.

When the snowpack experiences consolidation of this magnitude and significant movement of free water in a previously dry upper snowpack, the drastic changes bring a higher degree of uncertainty into the forecast.  We think that glide avalanches are most likely to remain 24-36 hours after the major rain event at Hurricane Ridge ended. You'll want to identify and avoid steep rock slabs where glide cracks may open and fail. These avalanches may contain a full season's worth of snowpack (82" at last check) and would be difficult to survive. Although there is a melt-freeze crust that could inhibit the movement of free water, we expect wet slabs are unlikely at this point. If you encounter a snowpack with wet, gloppy, unsupportive snow - all bets are off and you could trigger larger Loose Wet avalanches on steeper slopes. If you don't find a supportive crust, dial back your terrain selection and avoid all slopes exposed to or steeper than 35 degrees.

Non-avalanche hazards will be significant on Thursday:

• Firm and icy slopes have been reported in other forecast zones. Make sure you can self-arrest on the slopes you travel and consider bringing tools if you travel on steeper slopes.
• Creeks may be blown out, difficult to cross, and have high and fast-moving running water.
• Trailheads may be difficult to access due to downed trees, debris, and potentially flooding.

2020-21 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.   

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.