Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Human-triggered persistent slab avalanches are possible today at all elevations. 2 to 4-foot slabs from last week's storm continue to stress the faceted persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Don't get lured into chasing powder in steep terrain. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to be large and dangerous potentially taking with it the entire season's snowpack.  Pay attention to loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications of unstable snow.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    2 to 4-foot slabs from last week's storm snow rest on top of weak faceted snow deeper down in the snowpack or on the ground.  Below treeline, these slabs rest on top of an entirely faceted snowpack to the ground.  Near and above treeline faceted snow is sandwiched between hard slabs that formed from prior wind events. As we've seen with recent natural activity over the last week, these avalanches can propagate wide and step down to faceted weak layers just above the ground.  We are living in the world of a lower likelihood of triggering an avalanche but the consequences remain high.  

     Obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks may not be the first sign of instability, especially where the weak layer is deep. It may not be the first person on the slope to trigger an avalanche, but may just take hitting the "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner and you can impact the weak layer. Always think of the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.  Avoid being on or beneath slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

    Large natural avalanche from earlier in the week that failed on facets beneath a hard slab. Recent snow and winds have built 2 - 4 foot slabs that continue to stress these deeper weak layers

Avalanche Discussion

Snow from last week combined with winds has developed 2 to 4-foot slabs that formed on an overall shallow weak faceted snowpack.  Over the last week, we've had many natural and human-triggered persistent slab avalanches at all elevations that have failed on faceted snow near or on the ground. The large storm from last week easily stressed the weak facets that are now slowly adjusting to added load. Natural avalanche activity has died down since Thursday and loud audible collapsing and shooting cracks are more isolated in travels.  With that said, large explosives yesterday pulled some large unsurvivable hard slab avalanches above treeline that failed on facets just above the ground.   

So what does that mean for us over the next couple of days before the next storm? This is a scary moderate avalanche danger rating, where we have a lower likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche but the consequences will be extremely high if you do trigger one of these (deep) persistent slab avalanches. Above treeline on isolated slopes facing north or east if you hit a "sweet spot" where the snowpack is thinner on the margins of a slab or near a rock outcrop you could release an unmanageable large avalanche that could take with it the entire seasons snowpack. Hard slabs are often unpredictable and can break well above you.   Below treeline, persistent slab avalanches will be smaller but could have serious consequences in steep terrain if it sweeps you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.

With warm temperatures and sun poking through the high clouds today we may see wet loose snow avalanches in steep terrain on solar aspects.  These avalanches won't be big on their own but could be enough weight to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   

It's not all bad news, with another active weather week and potentially deepening snowpack and warm temperatures, the weak facets that have plagued us this season should start to heal and gain strength. As with everything right now, it's just going to take time before we round the corner. If you are getting out continue to stay vigilant and not let your guard down in the search of powder.  Continue to practice good travel techniques, giving big avalanche paths wide berths and always thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.  Even a small avalanche can have serious implications if it sweeps you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  Sticking to low angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you is a great way to stay safe and enjoy the powder.  

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