Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Use caution before entering steep slopes; Deep and unsurvivable slab avalanches could be triggered from large features in recently wind-loaded terrain. Shallower, but still deadly persistent slab avalanches may be triggered on steep, shaded aspects in the grassy foothills of the Columbia River. Smaller loose wet avalanches may be initiated from steep slopes at low elevations where rain falls on dry snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Deep storm totals along with intense wind drifting has created thick slabs over a decomposed crust from the Solstice, and other deeply buried weak layers. These layers could be anywhere from 3ft to 8ft deep. Very large, deep slab avalanches could be initiated from the edges of steep slopes or from below. These slabs may only need a trigger, such as a group of people or snowmobile. Cornices could collapse if you go near them and trigger these deep avalanches as well. 

    Your best chance to avoid this problem is to avoid the terrain that could produce deep slides. Stay out from under any large, open feature with recent wind loading. Recognize that avalanches could be triggered even after a person or two, or three have been on the slope. This problem appears most prominent in the eastern half of the zone, although likely exists elsewhere.

    In the open foothills, avalanches may be easier to initiate. Stay off of steep slopes if they have not avalanched yet, as they may only be awaiting a trigger. Northerly aspects with recent wind loading are the most likely places to trigger these. Recent avalanches on similar slopes should be all you need to avoid steep slopes nearby. 

    (1/8/2022)

    Deep slab release at Mission Ridge with control work. This slide had a crown from 3'- 5' deep, and the hangfire was triggered remotely.

    Photo: Drew Carlton

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The deep new snow is not fully settled yet,  so light rain may contribute to moistening snown surfaces at low elevations.  Slides could occur in atypical places because most areas do have enough snow for avalanches. You would most likely trigger these in steep, open terrain. The deep layer of storm snow could also glide off rock features at lower elevations. 

    If you notice glopping and heavy, wet snow over dry snow surfaces, it's time to get off steep slopes.

    Roof avalanches will continue to pose a threat, so use caution and make sure children and pets stay well out from impact zones.

    (1/9/2022)

    Loose wet slides were observed on lower elevation, foothills slopes on Sunday.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

The East Central zone continues to dig out after a record-breaking storm where many areas including towns picked up 3-4ft of new snow in less than a two day period. Many large and very large avalanches occurred as recently as Saturday. Control at Mission Ridge pulled out a 3'-5' deep hard slab on the Solstice Crust, and 5' deep hangfire was easily triggered as well. Backcounry travelers reported touchy conditions, and isolate whumphing near Mission Ridge on Saturday.  I could make out large debris piles in many of the drainages in the lower Tumwater and Icicle Creek, and spotted two fresh D3's on Saturday. These slides carried trees with them and one came within a few hundred feet of some houses. Folks reported whumphing collapses, shooting cracks, and a widespread avalanche cycle in the low elevation hills of the Columbia Basin on the 6th and 7th.

On Thursday morning, a D2.5 slab avalanche damaged a house south of Entiat (SS-N-R3-D2.5-O). The front door and garage doors were damaged, and the slide buried a car in the driveway. The slide likely ran on depth hoar on the ground - see photos below. Tumwater Canyon remains closed, and WSDOT reported over 208 debris piles on Highway 2 up to 15 feet deep, and several ran into the river. 10 of those slides were very large. 8 very large slides over the road were reported in Icicle Creek. Roads have been hit by avalanches in many other areas including; Hwy 97A, Mission Creek, Olalla Canyon, and Entiat River rd. On Mission Creek rd a plow driver got caught between two debris piles, and needed larger machinery to plow out. There have been at least two roof avalanche burials in the past few days, both with lucky outcomes where the victims were dug out alive. Many roofs have been shedding and there have likely been many other close calls.

Observers documented many different weak layers in the zone prior to the storm. The recent layers were large stellars, facets and surface hoar from 1/2 and 12/29. A decomposing crust from the Solstice was the bedsurface for some slides at Mission Ridge. An even deeper crust from Early December was observed to have propagation potential on high elevation, shaded slopes in the Icicle drainage. At this point, these layers could be from 3-8ft deep, and act as the weak layer for slab avalanches.

Many great Observations have come in from the area. Thanks, and keep them coming as we unravel the saga of this epic storm.

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