Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Melt-freeze conditions on southerly aspects may make you forget the time of the year, while northerly aspects remain firm with challenging travel. You can trigger a shallow avalanche on a steep slope once direct sushine breaks down surface crust. Check the Stevens Pass zone avalanche forecast if you head for the western edge of the zone.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    An observer triggered a small wet loose avalanche on Saturday in the Cle Elum area. We expect that you will continue to find wet surface snow capable of human-triggered avalanches in isolated locations where full sunshine melts surface crusts. Note your boot penetration as you move through the terrain.  If you're sinking past your ankle you can trigger a wet loose avalanche on a steep slope approaching 40 degrees. Take particular precautions around rocky terrain where the rock's warmth adds more heat to the snowpack. The longer the unseasonable warmth continues, the more uncertainty regarding the snowpack's ability to handle the warmth, so if you start to notice anything that's not in line with the forecast, then take a step back and choose simple terrain.

     

    (1/9/2022)

    Example of small loose wet avalanches in steep sun-exposed terrain. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

If you travel near the Cascade Crest you may encounter higher avalanche danger wind slabs and more widespread loose wet avalanche concerns that are best described in the Stevens Pass zone avalanche forecast. Some higher elevation areas north and west of Salmon La Sac likely received 5-10" of recent snowfall. Wet loose avalanches are more likely to become large. Most of the rest of the East Central zone picked up a dusting or less of snow with the 1/19-1/20 storm.

The East Central zone experienced widespread 50F temperatures at 5000 ft weather stations. Lower elevations were only slightly cooler beneath an inversion. We expect similar temperatures with slightly increased high cloud cover through Sunday. Near-record temperatures for multiple days in a row would typically have us very concerned. However, there are several factors that have prevented an avalanche cycle this time around: 1) Long winter nights and generally clear skies this time of year have contributed to the snowpack refreezing. 2) The low sun angle limits the duration of sunshine on any given surface. 3) Two wet avalanche cycles and a prolonged warm spell have transitioned the snowpack to be able to handle more unseasonable warmth. 

Some backcountry travelers reported excellent corn snow on a near treeline SSE aspect on Saturday. However, in addition to corn, you're likely to face challenging travel conditions with crusts, dust on crust on high elevation northly slopes, wet unconsolidated snow, and large piles of avalanche debris as you navigate the terrain. Creeks are opening up and flowing. New snow may cover up surface hoar that has been observed sitting on the crust on shaded slopes. Whether this snow rests on crusts or weak snow grains, a quick hand pit will be a great way to observe how well the storm snow sticks to the underlying surface.

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