Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on very steep slopes at upper elevations—especially those affected by the wind.  Triggering a large, destructive avalanche breaking deeper in the snowpack remains a possibility. Safer conditions—and the best skiing and riding—can be found on gentler slopes sheltered from the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Last week's storm dropped 24-40" (!!) of new snow in this zone, accompanied by strong winds. The greatest amounts fell along the crest of the Smoky Mountains (Titus Ridge to the Baker Cr divide to Dollarhide). Clearing skies yesterday revealed numerous natural avalanches, the majority of which ran on wind-loaded slopes. 

    Even though the storm has ended, wind-loaded terrain presents two lingering problems. The first is that while wind slabs are becoming less sensitive, there are likely a few out there that you could still trigger. The second problem is that wind-affected slopes have more recent loading and a stiffer slab sitting atop buried weak layers (see Additional Discussion below and Problem #2).

    If someone were to trigger a slide today, it would most likely occur in wind-loaded terrain. For that reason, the best approach will be to avoid steep slopes where you find evidence of wind loading such as drifted, pillowed areas,  or feel denser/stiffer snow beneath your board(s) or sled.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONYesterday's pattern of natural avalanche activity points to a probable crust/facet layer on steep (>35 degrees) slopes that face SE-S-SW. Notable slides on sunny aspects include the SW Bowl of Galena Peak (photo above/right), others in the Boulders near Mushroom Ridge, and one behind Horton Peak in Pole Creek (photo). This pattern was also observed in the Sawtooth & Western Smoky zone (photo). Until we have better information on this weak layer, most of us will be avoiding steep, southerly-facing slopes—especially those affected by the wind.

    (1/8/2022) This large natural avalanche occurred in the wind-affected SW bowl of Galena Peak. It likely ran on the interface between the old snow and the recent storm snow, which consists of a facet/crust layer on some steep, sunny slopes. 10,500', SW. Photo: T. Haskins

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak October snow is buried 3-5+' deep on most shady middle and upper elevation slopes. Some sunnier, upper elevation aspects have this layer too. The recent storm event just added a huge load to this weak layer, especially on wind-loaded slopes. On Titus Ridge Friday, I found the layer buried over 4' deep and it was still as weak and sugary as ever. 

    Yesterday's observations in neighboring zones revealed surprisingly few avalanches breaking deep into the October snow (although see photo above/right), which offers some hope for a future where we're less concerned about this layer. But I don't think we're quite there yet. Where are you more likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer? Most savvy backcountry skiers and riders are still avoiding very steep (>35 degrees), rocky, wind-affected slopes at upper elevations and in alpine terrain.

    (1/8/2022) Natural avalanche near Titus Ridge on the divide between the Big Wood and Titus Creek. Judging by the depth, it looks to have failed on weak October snow near the ground. 9400', N. Photo: T. Haskins

Avalanche Discussion

A BRAVE NEW WORLDLast week's multi-day storm cycle dropped 12-50" of new snow across our area, with the Western Smokys, Smoky Crest, Sawtooths, and Banner hit the hardest. Although this storm didn't change the game as much in the Wood River Valley where less snow fell, many other portions of the forecast area are dramatically different. It's time to take stock and make sense of this new world. Yesterday's clearing skies gave us a first glimpse at the pattern of avalanche activity, but we look forward to more "boots on the ground" observations in the coming days. Let's consider what we do and don't know.

Observations so far (knowns):

  • Numerous storm/wind-related avalanches occurred—not surprisingly given the massive snowfall, intense precip rates, and strong winds. 
  • Enough avalanches occurred on southerly aspects (Galena Peak, Boulders, Pole Creek, Western Smokys) to conclude a pattern exists. These slides likely failed on a crust/facet layer that was the old snow surface prior to the storm.
  • Few observed avalanches broke on the deeper October snow—at least from what we've seen so far. But here's a photo of one that did near Titus Ridge.

Observations needed (unknowns):

  • Is the crust/facet layer on steep, sunny slopes still sensitive or has it "done its thing"?
  • Will additional observations of avalanche activity show more slides that broke in October snow or reveal new patterns?
  • How deeply is the October snow buried? Where is it still a concern?

Until we get a better handle on our brave new world and the "knowns" list is longer than the "unknowns", most of us will be sticking to conservative terrain and embracing a wait-and-see attitude.

Be sure to catch up on last week's conditions in Chris' latest Weekend Update.

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