Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A winter storm will increase the avalanche danger to MODERATE overnight.   With only a few inches of snow expected before sundown, the avalanche danger will remain LOW today.  Isolated instabilities exist on high, northerly aspects, where terrain features holding deeper snow have potential to break on weak layers on the ground.  Pay attention to the snow structure if you are traveling on steep, shady aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    A patchy distribution of wind drifted slabs on top of old, sugary snow exists on some high elevation, northerly-facing terrain features.  Although these persistent slabs are difficult to trigger and relatively small, they can cause trouble if they drag you over rocks, stumps, or early season obstacles.  Be cautious of terrain where you find thick, dense snow overlying a continuous layer of weak, faceted snow on the ground.

    High northerly aspect? ☑. Smooth ground cover? ☑. Weak snow on the ground? ☑. Windloaded slab? ☑. Here's what it looks like when you've found the ingredients for our current persistent slab problem.

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall will be slow to ramp up until tonight, and we've held off on bumping the avalanche danger to Moderate until tomorrow.  Monitor snowfall accumulations and expect the danger to rise and new storm instabilities to develop once we see 6" or more of new snow.  This looks to happen overnight, and more dramatically for the Northwest Mountains.  You can view our detailed weather forecast on the "Weather Forecast" tab near the top of the page.  

Today we are expecting a few inches of warm, dense snow.  This will do little to change our current snowpack situation: generally stable with isolated exceptions.   Those exceptions exist in terrain that is well defined: high elevation, northerly aspects where snow and windloading have built slabs over early-season weak layers.  An observation from Mt. Baldy on Saturday highlights the problem - our forecast staff observed shooting cracks and collapses on a steep, northerly facing slope harboring old, faceted snow.  We are describing the problem as isolated because it only exists in a few features across the terrain.  Even on northerly aspects, many slopes lack the ingredients to be a problem right now: not enough slab due to wind scouring, a discontinuous or absent weak layer, or a structure that has grown dormant from recent weather patterns.  Want to ride steep terrain but don't want to fuss over these variables and uncertainty? You can make a more reliable travel plan by simply choose to travel on other aspects.  The weak snow from October did not survive on east, south, or west facing slopes.    

Mark your calendars! December 4th is CBAC's Virtual Avalanche Awareness Night.  A party and educational event, the likes of which you've never seen before.

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