Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche hazard in the West Central Mountains is Moderate today. Human triggered avalanches are possible.  Wind slabs 6-12 inches deep are sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Loose dry avalanches within the new surface snow 6-18 inches deep are possible on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Deep buried weak layers are hard to trigger, but have potential to start large avalanches. Watch for signs of wind loading, and evaluate terrain steeper than 30 degrees.

 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    North winds were strong enough to send snow over ridgetops and fail naturally within the latest 6 inches of dry blower snow as seen on Sgts East, leeward aspect yesterday. Winds formed shallow slabs yesterday that were failing on isolation. After the next couple of days we should see them stabilize.

    Look for signs of sculpting, and drifting, and avoid cornices and pillows that have formed on ridgelines and just below them. Shooting cracks, whoomphing sounds, or hollow feelings beneth your skis or sled are red flags for wind slabs and should turn you around in your tracks.

     

     

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday the snow was light and dry enough to run with you when you skied, and jump up in your face. The depth forced you to find steeper slopes in order to slide. I was able to get some of the new snow to slough on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. The variety of snow in which the newer snow has formed like slick crusts on solar aspects and other weak layers make it run farther in some places. Dry-Loose Human triggered avalanches at the new storm interface will be possible, especially on slopes steeper than 30 degrees that are sheltered and have not seen Sun. This light dry snow has potential to run with you, and possibly push you into unfavorable places like deep treewells and cliffs.

     

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    This problem is tough  and has potential to really hurt you. The chances of triggering this are low, but if you do trigger it, it is likely that it will be a nasty, usurvivable avalanche. These weak layers that have been resposible for many of the human triggered avalanches across our advisory area in the past couple of weeks are not going away anytime soon. The last report of activity was just this past Sunday when a skier was partially buried after triggering an avalanche in the Council Mtn area that failed 2-3 feet deep on a layer of buried surface hoar and near surface facets that formed around the 11th of February.

    Buried Surface hoar and a combination of buried surface hoar and near surface facets have been common weak layers that have formed during cool, calm, clear nights in between our frequent dumps this winter. The weak layers have gained a bit of strength, but are still producing clean fractures that are showing pretty good indications of propigating fractures.  Some of the surface hoar and facets formed on top of a slick sun crust.

    The amount of snow above this layer now brings us into the deep slab category, which ends up being a low probability/high consequence scenerio. 

    So we know it's still out there, but only a problem where it still is preserved and reactive? Likely spots where you can still trigger this layer are going to be upper elevation shallow, rocky areas, and mid elevation, protected corners in the mountains that shield the sun and wind.  The difficulty in knowing where the remaining weak layers are still located puts us on edge, and lowers our confidence in exposing ourselves to big consequential terrain right now.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    (2/26/2021) Buried surface hoar from 2/11 still producing failures

Avalanche Discussion

Thank You to everyone that supported the Friends of the Payette Avalanche Center's Online fundraiser last Saturday night! The fundraiser was a great success and brought in $4,800.00. This will help the avalanche center and people in the community a lot! Many thanks go out to our awesome local band, The Jughandle Parade who played on Facebook live for us during the last few hours. If you missed the fundraiser last week,  you can still donate to the FPAC by clicking here.

***Guns and Roses said it best "All we need is a little paitence"...As we head into another busy weekend, PAC would like to encourage all users to take a pause, step back and look at the local statistics as well as the climbing number of fatalities this winter.  In our area, we had 3 human-triggered avalanches that we know about that occurred on Saturday and Sunday.  Last week, we had at least the same amount.  The weekend prior to that skiers and snowmobilers reported natural and human-triggered avalanches occurring on many aspects.  Across the Western U. S. we have had 7 avalanche fatalities in the last 10 days and 25 avalanche fatalities during the month of February.  Many of these accidents occurred under Considerable hazard or under what Avalanche Centers and snow professionals have been calling "high Moderate" or "scary Moderate" hazard.  This has been a weird winter, we have unusual snowpack conditions across much of the Western U.S.  It's time to dial back your slope angles, take the time to dig into what the Avalanche Forecast is saying, and travel with a larger margin of safety built in. We are on track to have the highest number of avalanche-related deaths in the U.S. ever, don't add yourself or your partners to that count.

If you see or trigger avalanche activity, please take the time to snap a picture and note the approximate elevation and aspect, you can submit an observation on our website. Getting your info helps forecasters and other users get a better picture of the conditions throughout our mountains. If you have trouble using our observations page, please email us at: [email protected]   Please be mindful of other users in the mountains, and where you are at. There are closures for motorized travel in and around the local ski areas, in the Lick Creek Canyon,  Granite Mtn, Jug Mountain, and other areas throughout our region.  Check out the Winter Travel Map to find out where you can shred on your sled or moto.  Not all of these areas are signed, it is your responsibility to know where these closures exist.