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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2018–Jan 3rd, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

There is lots of uncertainty what's going to happen today as temperatures rise. Slab properties will change over the December 15th persistent weak layer, and a skier or rider could be the trigger needed to start a slab avalanche.

Weather Forecast

The main story for today and into the near future is the temperature inversion. Steep solar aspects in the alpine will see the most effect, while valley bottoms will stay cold and continue to facet. The inversion is set to last until Friday, when a low-pressure system slides in from the Pacific, pushing out the high pressure.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is quite a mixed bag of layering depending on Aspect and Elevation. The Dec 15th PWL (most prominent at TL) is the main layer on our radar, and we're still waiting for it to really produce a decent cycle. We've observed some failures of this layer "cracking" giving the snowpack a rippled effect, but still not failing as an avalanche.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no significant avalanches observed or reported in the last few days in Glacier National Park, with many of the standard lines been skied. Our Neighbors have seen more avalanches of late, due to either more load and slab formation or a shallower snowpack resulting in poor bonding between layers. We may see a change today!

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.