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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2018–Jan 13th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Skiing is still good in sheltered areas but expect wind slab formation to increase as time goes on and winds pick up. Treeline will become a likely place for avalanches as the Jan 6th loads.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries tomorrow. Alpine highs of -3.  Ridge wind west 40 km/h.

Avalanche Summary

The widespread cycle involving the storm snow has continued. There was numerous loose dry out of all aspects in the alpine. Including a low density slab that was witnessed today (E asp, 2500m out of steep unsupported terrain). We also had a report of small pockets of the Jan 6th surface hoar waking up. These were in the Warspite drainage and at treeline. They happened early yesterday and were up to sz2.

Snowpack Summary

The winds were noticeable today with lots of snow transport at summit elevations. This increase in winds has created fresh windslabs on Northeast to South aspects in the alpine. At treeline, the Jan 6th & Dec 15th layers start to become apparent, but still unreactive due to the lack of snow load and a slab. The Dec 6th becomes more apparent the lower you go. But again, the lack of a slab is preventing an avalanche problem. Today's notable observation was multiple stability tests with repeatable results below the Nov 27 crust(down 85cm). All tests failed with moderate loads. The technical details are: ECTP21 & CTM(19) sudden collapse. In a nutshell, this is telling us that those layers are breaking down and we should keep them in mind when assessing the snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.