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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2019–Jan 14th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Good skiing can be found in sheltered areas.  Wind slabs are present in the alpine.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Monday should be mostly sunny with alpine temperatures up to -3c with moderate westerly winds.  Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be be cloudy with sunny breaks and  temps a little cooler.  Maybe some light snow on Thursday.  Hoping!!!!!!!!

Avalanche Summary

One natural size 2.5 slab avalanche occurred sometime during Saturday night in Tent Bowl at approximately 2350m.  The failure plane was mostly on the basal facets and possibly also on the december 30 facets.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread wind slabs exist in the alpine and open areas at tree line.  Cross loaded features and lee areas show harder wind slabs and could be be triggered at the thinner spots. The upper half of the snow pack is well settled and overlies 50-60cm of very weak facets(sugar like snow).  This condition will persist over the long term, which means that any avalanche that occurs could step down to these weak basal layers causing a very large avalanche.  See the avalanche summary below.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.