Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 5-10 cm of snow, wind increasing from moderate to strong from the southwest, alpine temperatures drop to -6 C. THURSDAY: 15-20 cm of snow, strong wind from the southwest, freezing level climbing to 1200 m, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.FRIDAY: Another 10-20 cm of snow, strong wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1200 m, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -5 C.

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday, while ski cutting produced a few small wind slab avalanches (size 1) on freshly loaded slopes on Monday. Looking ahead, a widespread storm slab problem will develop with the incoming storm. The additional weight of the new snow may also stress deeper weak layers.

Fresh storm slabs will form as a storm passes through the region on Thursday and into Friday. Several layers of small spotty surface hoar and thin crusts have been observed in the top 50 cm of the snowpack. Some snowpack tests suggest the snow may be poorly bonded to these layers in isolated areas. However, the main weak layer worth considering is still the widespread weak layer that formed in early December. The layer consists of a rain crust with a weak layer of feathery surface hoar and sugary facets and can be found 50 to 100 cm below the surface. Although there has not been a reported avalanche on this layer in over a week, the incoming storm could be enough to reawaken it.