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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 5th, 2012–Dec 6th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Thursday: The region will be under the influence of a Westerly zonal flow. This will bring cooler temperatures, mix of sun and cloud and light snow amounts daily. Friday through Saturday: A weak ridge sets up over the coast bringing an even dryer, cooler NW flow. Freezing levels will remain in valley bottoms, alpine temperatures steady -10 falling to -15 on Saturday. The next hit of precipitation is expected Sunday, as a Pacific frontal system moves across the region.

Avalanche Summary

There are limited recent observations from this Region. I suspect a natural avalanche cycle may have occurred. The weight of a human rider is likely to trigger avalanches at treeline and above, especially on wind loaded aspects and behind terrain features.Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

New snow 40-60 cm fell over the past 4 days blankets the region. Instabilities (surface hoar layer, and a thin sun crust) may exist within or down 40-60 cm. We have very limited information on the extent or sensitivity of these layers, but suspect them to be reactive under the load of the new snow. A second buried surface hoar layer, down about 115 cm, and the early November rain crust (facet-crust combo), over 140cm down in some locations, remain a concern for isolated deep slab avalanches.Average snow depths at treeline seem to be between 140cm and 180cm. Elevations below 1500m are still reported as below threshold.In general, snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. Digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.