Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

MONDAY NIGHT: The storm finally arrives overnight bringing 10-20 cm of snow by the morning, strong wind out of the southwest, and freezing level around 800 m.TUESDAY: Storm eases throughout the day with another 5-10 cm of snow, strong wind out of the southwest, freezing level climbing to 1000 m in the morning and then dropping throughout the day..WEDNESDAY: Lingering flurries before another storm arrives Wednesday night, strong wind out of the west, freezing level dropping to 500 m.THURSDAY: The next storm brings 5-15 cm of snow, more strong wind out of the west, and freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

A MIN report from Ashman (west of Smithers) describes two avalanches in north-facing gullies at lower treeline elevations see here. We have very limited reports from this region so it is import to supplement this forecast with your own observations. If you have been out, please submit any observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

New snow will gradually accumulate as a series of storms bring snow to the region this week. The combination of new snow and strong winds out of the south will form thicker wind deposits at higher elevations. The new snow will likely bond poorly to the weak surface hoar and facets that have been sitting on the surface for the past week (see this MIN report).A hard crust has been reported 10-20 cm below the surface, and in some locations there is an early season crust with facets near the bottom of the snowpack.Expect an average snow depth of 60-120 cm in the alpine. This decreases dramatically with elevation where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.