Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Wednesday night: Cloudy with increasing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Thursday: Mainly cloudy with easing flurries bringing a trace to 3 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.Friday: Cloudy with another storm pulse bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Mainly light northeast winds, increasing to strong in the alpine. Alpine high temperatures around -8.Saturday: Mainly cloudy with cloud increasing and flurries beginning in the evening. Light variable winds before increasing and becoming southeast. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

A MIN report from Ashman (west of Smithers) describes two avalanches in north-facing gullies at lower treeline elevations see here. We have very limited reports from this region so it is import to supplement this forecast with your own observations. If you have been out, please submit any observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

An initial 10-20 cm of new snow has dusted the region, the first accumulations brought by a series of storms impacting us this week. The combination of new snow and forecast strong south winds will form thicker wind deposits at higher elevations. The new snow will likely bond poorly to the weak surface hoar and facets that have been sitting on the surface for the past week (see this MIN report).A hard crust has been reported 10-20 cm below the previous snow surface, and in some locations there is an early season crust with facets near the bottom of the snowpack.Expect an average snow depth of 60-120 cm in the alpine. This decreases dramatically at lower elevations, where the primary hazards remain the rocks, stumps, and open creeks lurking beneath thin snow cover.