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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2016–Mar 23rd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Right now forecaster's are in a "stepping back" mode. It feels as if the snowpack is very delicate and any weather input could have drastic effects.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will remain low tonight, keeping the snowpack cool. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. The alpine high will reach -4 with increasing winds. It will likely feel much cooler than -4. West winds will average 30km/hr with gusts to 70km/hr. Freezing levels will reach 1900m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were noted today, however observations were limited to the accident scene from yesterday.

Snowpack Summary

The fracture line from yesterday's avalanche was today's snowpack inspection. In the alpine and upper treeline, we are still noticing the deeper layers becoming more problematic. The Jan 6th facet layer's depth is dependant on aspect and wind exposure. It can range from 40-150cm of dense snow! Tests today were sobering. There were repeatable failures in the "easy" range, which translates to an extremely delicate snowpack. On the solar aspects and lower elevations, the various crusts are also major players. In some areas we have up to 5 crusts that we are watching. The Feb 11th is the most significant crust and seems to exist on non-polar aspects as a density change. On north aspects, surface hoar was observed up to 2200m. Below treeline, the travel is either on a crust or weak facetted snow.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.