Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Mar 22 – 23, 2016Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Right now forecaster's are in a "stepping back" mode. It feels as if the snowpack is very delicate and any weather input could have drastic effects.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–6
    Typically the cornice problem will come and go depending on weather. This year's crop is bigger and as such it demands more than the usual amount of respect.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    2–5
    It is important to remember that this layer presents itself as either a crust, or a density change. Pay close attention to all of the current crust problems and keep tabs on them as you travel.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–6
    This interface is the one to watch these days. Triggering this layer will almost certainly result in a very large destructive avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will remain low tonight, keeping the snowpack cool. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. The alpine high will reach -4 with increasing winds. It will likely feel much cooler than -4. West winds will average 30km/hr with gusts to 70km/hr. Freezing levels will reach 1900m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were noted today, however observations were limited to the accident scene from yesterday.

Snowpack Summary

The fracture line from yesterday's avalanche was today's snowpack inspection. In the alpine and upper treeline, we are still noticing the deeper layers becoming more problematic. The Jan 6th facet layer's depth is dependant on aspect and wind exposure. It can range from 40-150cm of dense snow! Tests today were sobering. There were repeatable failures in the "easy" range, which translates to an extremely delicate snowpack. On the solar aspects and lower elevations, the various crusts are also major players. In some areas we have up to 5 crusts that we are watching. The Feb 11th is the most significant crust and seems to exist on non-polar aspects as a density change. On north aspects, surface hoar was observed up to 2200m. Below treeline, the travel is either on a crust or weak facetted snow.

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