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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2015–Dec 11th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A natural avalanche cycle is subsiding, but human-triggering is still likely. The Dec 4th weak layer is highly variable in it's distribution and requires careful evaluation before choosing a route.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Friday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperature should reach a high of -6 C, with ridge-top winds out of the west at 15-30 km/h. Windy conditions expected on Saturday with a chance of some sunny breaks.

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered storm slabs have occurred in the past 48hrs on N, NE and E aspects generally between 2700m and 2100m. These slides averaged 50cm in depth and ranged from size 1.5 to 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Storm slabs are present in lee and cross-loaded terrain at Treeline and above. These slabs sit on the Dec 4th weak layer (consists of surface hoar, sun crust or facets) down 35 to 45cm, and still appear to be sensitive to triggering. The distribution and fracture potential of the Dec 4th weak layer is highly variable. Some cornice growth has occurred in typical locations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.