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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2017–Jan 4th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The cold has returned. Hopefully Tuesday was the coldest, but time will tell. So far the cold hasn't impacted the snowpack, but if it continues, expect some surface facetting.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Forecast for Burstall Pass:Minus 23° overnight tonight. A mix of sun and cloud tomorrow with no precipitation expected. Day time high of -14°. Northerly winds at 20-30km/hr in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new.

Snowpack Summary

Nothing new for snow in the last 24 hours. No surprise given the arrival of more cold arctic air. Last night saw lows of -36 on the Spray Rd. So far this cold has done little to change the overall snowpack character. The surface windslabs appear at treeline elevations and extend up to the high alpine on N-S aspects. The treeline midpack is continuing to lose strength and has a distinctly hollow, or "upside down" feel to it. The Dec 18 facets are still the main concern and are down approximately 40-50cm at treeline. The "deep" persistent layer (named for it's relative depth within the snowpack-in the bottom third) is next on the list of concerns. This is down 80-100cm at treeline and is starting to show signs of weakness in stability tests. Both of these layers are widespread in terms of aspect.The high alpine did see some wind transport today from the north. Its doubtful these formed any significant slabs given the cold, but there could be some isolated slabs in immediate lees on SE-SW aspects.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.