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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 25th, 2017–Nov 26th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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Wet snow conditions will persist, maintaining the potential for glide avalanches on steep unsupported terrain features that may not have released during recent heavy rains. Generally small loose wet avalanches involving the most recent snowfall will be possible on steep slopes mainly in the northeast Cascades. Watch for non-avalanche related hazards such as open creeks and barely buried rocks and trees. 

Detailed Forecast

Light snow is expected to turn to rain Saturday night with a lull in precipitation Sunday morning for the central-east and southeast Washington Cascades. Light to moderate rain should continue for the Washington Pass area overnight. By late Sunday morning precipitation should once again increase and the cold front should push through in the afternoon as snow levels drop to 4000-5000 feet by 4 pm.  

Wet snow conditions will persist, maintaining the potential for glide avalanches on steep unsupported terrain features that may not have released during recent heavy rains. Much of the below treeline elevation band does not have enough snow cover to support an avalanche hazard. Loose wet avalanches will only be listed in the Washington Pass zone, where there has been enough new snow to present a loose wet problem. Isolated pockets of wind slab may exist above treeline but will not be included in the problem set. 

Watch for the numerous travel hazards such as open creeks, barely buried rocks and trees, and glide cracks, creating poor and challenging travel conditions, especially below treeline. 

Remember that closed ski areas without avalanche mitigation are equivalent to backcountry terrain!  

Snowpack Discussion

Avalanche and Weather Summary

New resources within your Avalanche Forecast this season! 

The Mountain Weather tab will take you to the most recently issued Mountain Weather Forecast. The Observations & Weather Data tab will allow an easy view of the various weather station graphs within your zone of interest and provide easy access to the most recent avalanche and snowpack observations. 

The great start of winter 2017/18 in the PNW has taken a recent hit as warm wet weather arrived Tuesday morning and has just begun to cool as of late Thanksgiving. After some initial snowfall, the east slopes of the Cascades also received some heavy rainfall, with 2 to over 4 inches of rain since Tuesday morning, reaching well above the crest level.

Rain has now melted significant snow with average snow depths decreasing about 30-50% since Monday, especially at mid and lower elevations. This has allowed much of the previously well snow covered terrain to open with many creeks and snow bridges re-appearing, especially near and below treeline.

Cooler temperatures persisted in the Washington Pass area, where significantly less snow melt occurred. Lesser amounts were received elsewhere along the east slopes. 

Cooling since Thursday with additional, mostly light precipitation, has begun to add some new snow above the old wet snowpack. The Washington Pass area received about 2-5 inches of new snow as of Friday afternoon.

Observations

See the recent observations tab for reports of several wet snow avalanches near the WA Pass area as a result of the warming and rain early last week.

Problems

Glide Cracks

Glide avalanches occur when water lubricates the interface between the snowpack and the ground. These avalanches are difficult to predict and best managed by avoiding terrain below glide cracks.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.