Avalanche Forecast

Light to occasional moderate snow showers are expected Thursday with moderate WSW ridgetop winds. Generally light expected snowfall amounts and gradual warming should allow for settlement of storm related weaknesses. However, winds may still be strong enough to transport loose surface snow, continuing to deposit wind slabs on lee aspects, more NE-E-SE facing. 

Watch for signs of cracking or firmer wind transported snow. 

New snow may have initially bonded poorly to a variety of snow surfaces Wednesday, including possible surface hoar or weak lower density snow on sheltered and shaded slopes, or a possible thin sun crust on southerly facing slopes. Travel cautiously and make route choice decisions conservatively Thursday. 

Weather and Snowpack

Two heavy rain events, one about January 21st and another January 27-28th have helped stabilize the mid and lower snowpack, having now formed a very strong rain crust that is being loaded by recent storms. This has shifted the current avalanche problems to upper storm snow layers, though they are now getting fairly deep. 

A strong occluded front with strong winds crossed the Northwest on Friday. NWAC stations along the west slopes received about 1-1.5 feet of new snow by Saturday morning. Light amounts of snow followed at the tail end of the storm by Sunday morning. The most recent snowfall fell on top of the rain crust from late last week. Cool and benign weather followed Sunday through Tuesday. Varying amounts of sunshine Tuesday along the west slopes formed a thin sun crust on steeper solar aspects as reported in the most recent observations.

A front is depositing new snow with strong winds Wednesday afternoon, 2/3. Likely building new storm and wind slabs on a variety of aspects, with wind slab expected, mainly on NW-N-NE facing slopes below ridges, near and above treeline. 

Recent Observations

Three NWAC pro-observers visited the Stevens Pass and Paradise areas on Sunday and generally reported possible wind slab on previous lee slopes and possible storm slab in the storm snow in the near and above treeline as the main avalanche problems.

NWAC pro-observer Lee Lazzara was in the Mt Baker area on Monday, reporting small wind slab varying in depth from 20-40 cm over slightly lower density snow but lacking clean shears. Skiers also triggered, loose dry avalanches on steep 45 degree slopes.  Lee reported similar conditions in the Baker backcountry on Tuesday with the rain crust 50-80 cm down, no avalanches and an overall quite stable, right side up storm snow well bonded to the crust. 

Pro-observers Ian and Dallas were on Snoqualmie Mt Tuesday and generally found low density snowfall above the most recent rain crust providing good skiing conditions with minimal wind effects. The most recent snowfall was not cohesive enough to form a storm slab in their specific area. 

NWAC observer Jeff Ward was in the Stevens Pass area Tuesday. He generally found a stable upper snowpack, but observed new surface hoar growth most prominent in Highland Bowl near ridgecrest.