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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2016–Jan 6th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Older wind slab and possible loose wet avalanches should be the main problems to watch for at Hurricane on Wednesday.

Detailed Forecast

A large weak low pressure system will drift toward California on Wednesday. A shot of drier air with some weak light showers should eject from the low and over the Northwest. This may bring some light snow showers to Hurricane with slightly warmer temperatures.

Mostly older wind slab will still need to be watched for at Hurricane mainly on north to east slopes. Look for signs of firmer wind transported snow that can indicate wind slab layers.

Some sun or solar effects and slightly warmer temperatures should also be seen on Wednesday. Loose wet avalanches seem like a possible bet as well on steep solar slopes. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches and initial natural small loose wet releases on solar slopes that usually precede loose wet avalanches.

Snowpack Discussion

Fair weather was seen for almost a week around the New Year. This weather should have caused consolidation and stabilizing of snow from December at Hurricane.

NWAC pro observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on New Years Day in warmer weather and found 1-2 inch sun crusts on south slopes and sastrugi and small building wind slab on north slopes. But he did not see any failures in snow pit tests. Some surface hoar was being preserved in some shaded sheltered areas. Cornices had become more isolated.

A skier on Turns All Year also reported settled stable powder on north slopes on New Years Day.

Fair weather continued Sunday and Monday at Hurricane. Some light snow may have been seen there on Tuesday.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.