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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2018–Feb 6th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Avoid steeper solar slopes if wet surface snow becomes deeper during the afternoon hours. A small avalanche can have significant consequences near cliffs, trees, or terrain traps such as gulleys.

Detailed Forecast

Significant afternoon warming and and partly cloudy skies will revive the possibility of loose wet avalanches on Tuesday. These avalanches will take longer than usual to form due to the thickness of the surface crust in the Mt. Hood region. However, as the daytime temperatures warm, avoid steeper solar slopes where wet, slushy snow becomes deeper than a few inches.

Snowpack Discussion

Cooling from Sunday afternoon through Monday refroze the top 10-12" of wet surface snow into a firm crust.

Moderate to strong W-NW winds were seen over the weekend at Mt. Hood, but due to continued mild conditions, there is no snow available for transport in the above treeline band (NWAC's forecast does not apply above 7000-8000 feet). The mild and at times wet weather created wet snow conditions well into the above treeline terrain in the Mt Hood area. 

The upper snowpack consist of a mix a thick crust at the surface, wet snow, old crusts, and well consolidated storm snow. 

Observations

Mt. Hood Meadows pro patrol reported that wind kept the snow firm except at the lowest elevations receiving solar heating. Runnels were in the terrain up to 7300'.

Mt. Hood Meadows pro patrol reported that Friday's widespread wet loose avalanche activity had become more stubborn and isolated near and below treeline by Saturday.  The wet upper snowpack was still quite unconsolidated with the most recent 1/18 crust breaking down due to the sustained mild wet weather. Winds were strong near and above treeline but no snow was available for transport in area. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.