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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 24th, 2013–Nov 25th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

The Winter Permit System comes into effect on Tuesday, November 26th. Click here: Winter Permit Information, for further info.

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will rise to 1800 m today. An inversion today with warm air aloft will rise alpine temperatures to around 0 deg. Ridge top winds will be light with no precipitation. This stable weather pattern with high freezing levels is forecast to continue until Wednesday.  Snow is forecast in the park for Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temperatures and clear skies have facetted the upper snowpack and a health layer of surface hoar is growing. Solar aspects are forming surface crusts. The November 12th surface hoar layer is buried between 50 and 110cm. Its distribution is valley dependant. It had been observed up to 2500m on Mt Abbott in the Asulkan Valley.

Avalanche Summary

Solar induced slides on south through west facing slopes are possible today if the sun stays out this afternoon. Rock outcrops and trees can be trigger points. Use caution in this terrain, especially if the surface snow is moist. Last Wednesday, a size 3.5 natural avalanche occurred on the Dome, running on the Nov. 12th surface hoar down 100cm.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.