Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Regions
Glacier.
Heavy snowfall and rising temperatures today will cause a spike in avalanche danger. Choose a very conservative route with no overhead hazard.
Weather Forecast
A low pressure system will track across the area today, bringing another 15cm of snow with winds gusting to 80km/h from the SW. Freezing levels are expected to hit 1800m around noon, then drop rapidly tonight with the passage of the storm. Flurries and alpine high's of -11*C on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
This week's storm brought warm temps, intense precipitation and strong S winds. This has left touchy storm and wind slabs above tree-line and a breakable crust with moist/wet snow below tree-line. Weak interfaces in the upper snowpack are still easily trigged by human loading. The late Feb crust interface is now down 1-1.5m.
Avalanche Summary
One natural avalanche was reported from Cheops North 5 yesterday, while another size 3.5+ in Loop Brook ripped out deep persistent layers on moraines. The powder cloud was observed coming across the normal up-track towards Balu Pass. Several natural avalanches to size 2.5 were also observed in the highway corridor.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.