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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 16th, 2022–Apr 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Large cornices are hard to pinpoint when travelling on a ridgetop and can be easily triggered by the weight of a person; so stay well back. Looking at approaching big lines? Make sure to read this new blog.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

A surface low tracking across Montana will spill lightly over the region tonight. By Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will build over, bringing a drier day. Warmer and closer to seasonal temperatures are expected early next week.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light snow (2-4 cm) / easterly wind 20-40 km/h / treeline low around -12C / freezing level rising at valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / light to moderate west wind / treeline high around -2 C / freezing level rising to 1500 m and back at valley bottom at night. 

MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness / increasing southwesterly wind to 40 km/h / treeline around +2 C / freezing level rising to 1800 m and remaining elevated at night.

TUESDAY: Snow at high elevation 10-15 cm / moderate southwesterly wind gusting 50 km / treeeline high around +4 C / freezing level at 1800 m.  

Avalanche Summary

Observations are limited this time of year. No new avalanches were observed in the last few days. 

If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider contributing to the Mountain Information Network by sharing snow / riding conditions. 

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of snow sits over a widespread melt-freeze crust formed on April 8. Periods of strong wind from the northeast through southeast earlier this week have redistributed the snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming wind slabs or hard wind pressed surfaces. Cornices have likely grown large recently, but are expected to be relatively stable with the current temperatures. A sun crust has also been formed on steep sun-exposed slopes. 

Multiple crusts exist in the upper snowpack, which are currently considered stable and well bonded with the ongoing cold conditions. The middle and lower snowpack are currently well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.