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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2022–Nov 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Bull.

Because of the thin, soft, early season snowpack the best riding will also be where avalanches are most likely. Avoid overhead hazards, keep slope angles moderate, and stick to places sheltered from the wind.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

New on Sunday: Explosives released several size 2 storm slabs and one size 3 that propagated across the entire feature and ran far (typical length of a size 3 is 1000 m). Whumphs were reported from the Flathead.

Previously Reported: one size 2 natural from the Lizard Range during Friday's storm was up to 40 cm deep, 150m wide and ran 300m.

Something to Ponder: by Sunday night the snowpack may have received 60mm of water equivalency in the last two storms. Adding 50% or more load to a young, thin snowpack is significant. I'm thinking it's possible something might scrub down into the lower snowpack or even to ground.

Snowpack Summary

Upper snowpack: consists of the 45 to 60 cm of snow over the past week. At the bottom of this recent snow is a layer of surface hoar. Take a look under the hood from Harvey Pass. ESPeters10 - thanks for sharing.

Lower Snowpack: sugary faceted snow and with a rain crust just above the ground.

Snowpack depths at treeline are 45 to 75 cm, and in the alpine 65 to 125 cm.

Weather Summary

Sunday NightIt's going to be a clear and cold night. No new snow, light west wind, and touching -20 C.

MondayDry, mix of sun or cloud, depending where you are, light wind veering to the north or east, and temperatures around -15 to -20 C.

Tuesday

Very similar to Monday. Maybe a touch colder, maybe a bit more sun, maybe the wind will back to the SW late in the day.

Wednesday

A weak system arriving from the coast. Currently it looks like a dusting to 10 cm of snow but it should warm up dramatically with the southwest wind.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.