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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2020–Feb 7th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

A thick crust near the surface has stabilized the snowpack. Some new snow is expected on Friday night.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, light wind from the west, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud in the morning with increasing cloud as a weak storm approaches in the evening, light wind in the morning then moderate southwest gusts in the afternoon, alpine high temperatures around -5 C.

SATURDAY: 5-15 cm of new snow overnight then light flurries and cloudy in the afternoon, light wind from the northwest, alpine high temperature around -5 C.

SUNDAY: Sunny, moderate wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1) wind slab avalanches were triggered by riders on Wednesday. Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past week.

Snowpack Summary

Variable amounts of wind affected snow sits above a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. Sheltered areas have 10-20 cm of snow above the crust. The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.